Amazon.com Earnings Expectations & Chart Support (AMZN)

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is set to report earnings after the close of trading.  Jeff Bezos and friends at the online retailing giant have already said that the Q4-2008 holiday season was a record for the company, but the company was not clear on what that meant.

Thomson Reuters (First Call) consensus is for  $0.39 in non-GAAPEPS and $6.44 billion in revenue.  The company offered guidance lastquarter of $145 million to $305 million in net income on revenues of $6 billion to $7billion.

We doubt highly that the company will be so bold as to forecast theyear ahead when every other giant company is not even offering guidance.But Amazon may offer at least some basic revenue and marginguidance for a quarter out.  Next quarter estimates are $0.31 EPS and$4.57 billion in revenue.

What is interesting here is that the business of Amazon.com has abit of a defensive nature to it as buyers can use it for bargain hunting.  That may sound like blasphemy, but keep in mind we are not calling its "stock valuation"defensive.   Interestingly enough, theexpected $1.37 EPS and $18.91 billion in revenue for 2008 are expectedto grow in fiscal 2009 to $1.44 EPS and $21.19 billion in revenue.  Aquarter ago, the target for fiscal 2009 was as high as $1.63 EPS, so thegrowth rates that are still expected are at least much lower thanbefore.

Options are a bit difficult difficult to use today for predictingexpectations, but it looks like options traders are braced for a moveof up to $3.80 to 4.60 in either direction.  Wall Street analysts arestill mixed on the stock over valuations and the average price target isaround $57.00.

Its chart is also not representative of any screaming buy or sellsignals as the share price has been in a tight trading range for morethan the last two weeks.  But what is interesting here is that the50-day moving average has been acting as extreme steadfast supportsince mid-December, and that figure is $48.70 today.

Jon C. Ogg
January 29, 2009