How many Apple Watch units did Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) sell in the most recent quarter, results of which will be reported this week? Did iPod sales top iPad sales? Has the Mac cut into sales of tradition personal computers? None of those things matter if Apple did not sell 46 million or so iPhones.
Source: courtesy of Apple Inc.
Most of Wall Street has put together research that shows Apple will sell 44 million to 48 million iPhones. Anything below 46 million will send the stock into a spiral, dropping it well down from its nearly 52-week high. Apple shares trade near $130, up 37% in the past year. The company’s market cap has reach $747 billion. The number two public corporation in terms of market cap is energy juggernaut Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) at a mere $405 billion.
Apple’s revenue in the April quarter reached $58 billion, with iPhone sales of 61 billion. Apple management said that revenue in the most recent quarter would be $46 billion to $48 billion. Apple is notorious for offering very conservative forecasts. Some analysts believe that this tactic allows the company to almost always beat expectations, which in turn drives its stock higher.
Expectations for the quarter about to announced, however, have already outrun Apple’s forecast. Analysts, based on consensus, have posted expectations at the very high end of Apple’s prediction.
For Apple to truly top what Wall Street expects, it would have to have sold 50 million iPhones last quarter. Almost any forecast that high has as a foundation in Apple’s sales in China. Management has said several times that extraordinary sales in China will not only be the key to success now, but will be the major driver of Apple’s success in the years to come.
Did Apple sell 50 million iPhones in the last quarter? That result is the only thing that can lift the stock higher. Apple may release a new iPhone in the current quarter, but if it did not sell 50 million in the most recent quarter, no one will care.
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