Is Groupon a Takeover Target?

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) made a $6 billion offer for Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) late in 2010. The rumor then was the Groupon had revenue of $2 billion that year. It turned out not to be true, and Wall St. could see that when Groupon issued figures prior to its IPO. Groupon currently has a market cap of $8 billion. That may fall now that the SEC has begun to examine the company’s pre-IPO financials. Google may come back, if it believes that the Groupon model is still viable.

Several securities analysts claim that the Groupon model is not viable. Electronic coupon sales set for retailers have become passe. Retailers have learned that Groupon may bring short-term customers, but some complain that those customers do not come back. And the Groupon model has been mimicked by large companies such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).

However, Google has a huge shopping system of its own. It might use Groupon to increase that business. Google apparently still believes that e-commerce is an important business. The search company might augment that because of its broad relationship with local retail firms. Groupon’s system may not be flawed as much as its management’s execution is.

Google may find that Groupon has a second suitor if it makes an offer for Groupon. That would be Amazon, which has pressed into the local coupon space.

Groupon may be a wounded standalone company, but that does not completely undermine its potential long-term value.

Douglas A. McIntyre