Consumers turned out in big numbers for the Thanksgiving Day-Black Friday shopping weekend, but the numbers were a bit more wrinkled than many observers expected. Total numbers for the two days rose compared with last year according to research firm ShopperTrak, but only for Thanksgiving Day.

ShopperTrak logged a gain of 2.8% in brick-and-mortar store traffic for the two days, and a 2.3% gain in sales. The numbers for Black Friday fell significantly however, as more consumers headed for the stores on the Thursday holiday. Friday traffic was down 11.4% and sales were down 13.2% compared with last year.

On a regional basis, two-day traffic rose 6.9% in the West, 4.8% in the South, 2.3% in the Midwest, and fell 5% in the Northeast. A nasty winter storm in the Northeast gets the blame for the lower numbers. Sales followed the same pattern as traffic: up 6% in the West, 4.8% in the South, 3.3% in the Midwest, and down 7% in the Northeast.

If, as ShopperTrak’s number suggest, Thanksgiving day is poaching traffic and sales from Black Friday are retailers actually gaining anything? A sales boost of just 2.3% for the two days won’t be enough to carry full holiday season sales to the 3.9% increase predicted by the National Retail Federation. In fact, that estimate now looks too optimistic by about half.

Online shopping appears to have followed a similar track. The following chart from IBM’s Digital Analytics Benchmark group indicates that by about 10 a.m. on Black Friday, online traffic starts to decline, probably as consumers head to the malls. And online traffic on Thursday evening already tops traffic on Friday.

It’s still too early to draw large conclusions from all the numbers, but most indications point to a better-than-expected Thanksgiving Day result and a slightly poorer-than-expected result for Black Friday. In the final analysis it very likely could be a wash: opening earlier on Thursday did not add anything, it merely shifted sales forward from Friday. That could be the story for the entire holiday shopping season.

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