Retail

January Retail Sales Growth Estimate a Meager 0.2%

Paul Ausick

Published: February 1, 2016 2:05 pm

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 1:48 pm

Same-store sales for the month of January were weak, but still a couple of ticks higher than January 2015. But fourth-quarter earnings look to be far worse — down 1.4%. That is according to the Retail Metrics Earnings Index, which includes 119 retailers.

January is the final month of the quarter and final month of the fiscal year for many retailers, and this January has been a tough one. The usual clearance sales take their toll on revenues and profits, of course, but added to that was abnormally warm weather in the October through December period, which stacked the clearance tables even higher with unsold winter merchandise. Traffic picked up a bit for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, but that positive news may have been offset by the massive winter storm that hit the Northeast late in January. We won’t even mention the equity and energy markets.

Retail Metrics noted:

Consumers are spending, albeit at a slightly less robust pace, on new vehicles as low gas prices and better labor market conditions are fueling SUV & Truck sales. Americans are continuing to direct wallet share toward eating out and other experiences that are not benefiting traditional retailers. Additionally spending continues to move online. Amazon’s 4Q15 revenues grew at an enviable 22% pace but the stock was crushed at it missed very lofty expectations for both earnings and revenues.

Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) has already reported that January same-store sales slipped 1.4%, even though analysts were looking for a small gain. Front-end same-store sales decreased 1.9% and pharmacy same-store sales, including a negative impact of about 242 basis points from new generic introductions, decreased 1.2%.

Among stores reporting monthly same-store sales on Thursday, Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) is estimated to post a gain of just 0.7%, compared with a 5% gain in January 2015, mostly due to the low price of gasoline.

Gap Stores Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is expected to report a drop of 4.0% in January, compared with a gain of 6.0% in 2015, and even L Brands Inc. (NYSE: LB), which operates Victoria’s Secret, Pink, Bath & Body Works, La Senza and Henri Bendel stores, is estimated to post a same-store sales gain of 2.3%, down from an 8.0% gain in January 2015.

Retail Metrics also noted that industry analysts have lowered fourth-quarter same-store sales forecasts for the 119 retailers in the index to just 0.8%, down from an increase of 1.2% prior to the Christmas holiday. That would be the weakest quarterly comparative sales performance since the first quarter of 2013.