Bing Predicts: Each Team’s Odds of Winning the Super Bowl

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The New England Patriots were the last team to win back-to-back Super Bowls. They edged the Carolina Panthers on Feb. 1, 2004, then topped the Philadelphia Eagles on Feb. 6, 2005.

Can the defending Super Bowl champions pull it off again?

According to Bing Predicts, New England will win the Feb. 4, 2018 Super Bowl in Minneapolis. This will follow their unprecedented comeback, overtime Super Bowl win over the Atlanta Falcons last February.

This season is at the halfway point, so there’s plenty of football left. So far, there have been a good deal of surprises and crazy football — just like the NFL can deliver. Compared to a league like the NBA, where just four teams have accounted for well over half of all championship wins over the past 70 years, the NFL is certainly less predictable.

However, elements such as successes in previous years, the addition or loss of quality players, injuries, and more can provide meaningful insight into which teams will likely go the distance. There is a reason the Patriots were a popular pick for the Super Bowl at the beginning of last season and the woeful Browns were not. Bing Predicts’ model accounts for all these factors when calculating the likely final records of each NFL team, as well as how the playoff teams would compare against each other.

New England is not exactly a difficult call to make. The Patriots are some kind of special, looking for their sixth Super Bowl championship in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.

Meanwhile, the four teams that have never been to a Super Bowl — the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and of course the Browns — aren’t likely to get there this year. The Texans looked like they might have a shot, thanks to the surprising play of Deshaun Watson, but season-ending injuries to Watson as well as star defensive end J.J. Watt have likely torpedoed Houston’s chances this year.

Check out which teams Bing expects will make the playoffs this year and which have no chance, as well as the predicted season record of each team. We also added for each team the current Vegas odds to win the Super Bowl. Who are you betting on?

Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Final regular season projections also considers both team strength, as well as that of the remaining opponents in their schedule. Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.

To determine the likelihood of each team winning the Super Bowl, 24/7 Wall St. first relied on Bing’s predicted outcomes for the playoffs, treating teams expected to win more playoffs games as also more likely to win the Super Bowl. After accounting for expected playoff progress, teams were ranked based on projected seeding in the playoffs, and then their projected win totals. Ties between teams with identical records were then broken by the current Las Vegas odds to win the Super Bowl. Remaining ties were broken based on recent game success, injuries, and social sentiment.

Click here to see Bing’s predictions for each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
Click here to see all Bing weekly NFL predictions.