When Cold Weather Can't Even Save Zumiez (ZUMZ)

After perusing the 52-week lows mid-day there was one key standout as the last name on the list: Zumiez (NASDSAQ:ZUMZ). 

Recently this posted a disappointing sales growth of 5.6% on same-store-sales.  Analysts were looking for an 8% gain on average, and this was well under the 12% growth seen in November 2006.  Zumiez isn’t ONLY a winter gear apparel company since it sells apparel and skating equipment and more.  But it is thought of by many as a winter sport equipment and apparel company.  The cold weather isn’t helping as it is hitting new 52-week lows heading into Christmas.  Maybe a recession is even worse for snowboarders than it is for home sales.

The stock performance has now been bad enough that it had two different class action lawsuits filed against it.  With shares down 5.6% at $22.71, its 52-week trading range before today was $23.78 to $53.99.  This was over $50.00 briefly at an all-time high just at the beginning of October.

It isn’t a super expensive stock based upon the easy metrics with consensus estimates at roughly 24-times JAN-2008 EPS targets and around 19-times JAN-2009 EPS targets.  Maybe these estimates are coming way down and the multiple only sounds cheap today but won’t be cheap tomorrow.

One of these two scenarios comes to mind: you have to wonder if this is just gravitating toward a market multiple, or if the company has gone from shinola to merely a mediocre store overnight.  There’s a third possibility too.  Maybe it’s just a grossly oversold stock.

Jon C. Ogg
December 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at [email protected]; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.