How Hurricane Fears Are Feeding into Beacon Supply

Hurricane season is just around the corner with the summer of 2018 already under way. After a particularly catastrophic season last year, more people than ever will be watching the radar this season. Beacon Roofing Supply (NASDAQ: BECN) was named by an analyst as a stock that could benefit from this storm season.

Wedbush issued an Outperform rating for Beacon, with a $65 price target compared to a $39.79 closing price, implying an upside of 63%.

Beacon shares notched a solid gain on Thursday in part as a result of this call. However, Wedbush was quick to point out that Beacon was also rising in response to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) prediction of a hurricane forming over the next five days. Per the NHC report from this morning (5/24), the storm is forming over the Yucatan Peninsula with a projected track northward to the panhandle and western coast of Florida.

According to Wedbush:

We believe the roofing industry currently expects an average hurricane season which would equate to a Y/Y decline in domestic shingle shipments. Per, 2017 was one of the 10 most active hurricane seasons with “17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes” which compares to an average season of “12 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes” over the last 30 years. Last, the traditional hurricane season begins on June 1 each year and runs through November 30 so it appears the current storm, if it materializes, is slightly earlier than normal.

Finally, if the 2018 hurricane season is more active than expected, Wedbush anticipates that this could give Beacon more pricing power with customers.

Shares of Beacon Supply closed Thursday up 5% at $41.87, with a consensus analyst price target of $66.64 and a 52-week range of $39.90 to $42.05.

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