Can Nissan Be the Next Chrysler?

Among the top 20 best-selling cars in the United States for the month of July are two vehicles from Nissan: the compact Sentra and the mid-size Altima. A third model, the Rogue compact SUV, has also been among the best-selling vehicles in its class.

What’s up with Nissan, which struggled in the United States all last year and appeared to be on life support until it released refreshed Rogue and Altima models? The new models, along with the new Sentra that was released in 2012 and tuned up a bit last year, have made all the difference.

The mid-size Altima was the third best-selling car in its class in July with a 12.9% share, compared with the 19.4% share for long-time mid-size leader Camry from Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) and 17% for the Accord from Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC). The Altima’s sales were up 2.1% month-over-month and 2.9% year-to-date. Camry sales were up more than 8% year-to-date, but Honda’s Accord was up less than 1%.

Among the compact SUVs, Nissan’s Rogue was the fourth-best seller in July scoring a 9.1% share, but still well behind the Escape from Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), the Toyota RAV4 and the sector-leading Honda CRV, which claimed a 15.7% share of July sales. But Rogue’s sales have risen nearly 21% year-to-date, while the CR-V has gained just 5.9%.

Nissan’s U.S. market share at the end of July totaled 8.5%, up from 8.1% in December 2013 and just behind fifth-place maker Honda, which claims a 9.5% share. But Honda’s share is down from 10% in December. Toyota has gained a point since December to post market share of 15.1%, while Ford is down from 15.2% to 14.8% and Chrysler has slipped a little from 11.9% share to 11.7%. Market share leader General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), with 17.9% share, continues improving even with all its recalls.

Some of Nissan’s market share gains have come from incentive offers averaging about $2,300 per vehicle for the three-month period through June. But those incentives are getting smaller, and Nissan’s average transaction price rose 0.4% in July, although it is still down 2.8% for the year.

Kelley Blue Book analyst Alex Gutierrez had this to say about Nissan’s performance in 2014:

So far this year, Nissan has increased sales of its three biggest sellers, Altima, Rogue and Sentra, by 18 percent. This is especially impressive considering overall industry sales of compact and mid-size cars have slowed this year.

If the company can maintain its momentum, it could out-race Honda and present a threat to Chrysler by this time next year.

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