Cars and Drivers

Tesla Shares Rise Even Though Deliveries Were and Will Remain Soft

Model_S_touchscreen
Source: Courtesy of Tesla Motors
Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported third quarter 2014 earnings after markets closed on Wednesday. For the quarter, the electric car maker posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02 on adjusted revenues of $932 million. In the same period a year ago, the company reported adjusted EPS of $0.12 on revenues of $602.58 million. Third-quarter results compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for an EPS loss of $0.01 and $889.28 million in revenues.

The whisper number was $0.03, four cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate. The range at whispernumber.com ran from a low of $0.01 to a high of $0.05.

On a GAAP basis, the carmaker lost $0.60 per share, compared with a year-ago quarterly loss of $0.50. GAAP revenue totaled $852 million. The significant items excluded from the non-GAAP EPS were $0.31 a share in stock based compensation; $0.18 for non-cash interest expense related to convertible notes; and $0.13 of deferred Model S gross profit due to lease accounting.

The carmaker delivered 7,785 vehicles in the quarter and expects to deliver about a fiscal year total of approximately 33,000 deliveries. Tesla had been projecting full-year deliveries of 35,000 and offered this explanation for the change:

Production for the full year is expected to be about 35,000 cars, despite entering Q4 with a deficit in production of 2,000 units from Q3. However, the loss of these cars in Q3 means fewer available to deliver in Q4 and our ability to ramp up production in Q4 is constrained by the complexity of launches related to dual motor and autopilot hardware. Consequently, we expect to deliver approximately 33,000 vehicles for 2014. This is 50% above 2013 deliveries, but 5% to 7% below prior estimates for 2014. Previous projections for 2015 are unaffected.

The company plans to increase production capacity to a total of 2,000 cars and Model X SUVs a week by the end of next year. The company also said that it expects annual production to increase by more than 50% in 2015 over 2014, and “probably for several years to follow.”

The company directly leased 347 cars in the third quarter and said it expects to lease 3,000 to 3,500 cars in North America during the fourth quarter Tesla said it expects to begin delivery of its Model X in the third quarter of 2015.

Adjusted gross margins in the quarter came in at 23% and Tesla forecasts these to rise to 28% by the end of the fourth quarter.

Tesla said it expects to earn an adjusted $0.30 to $0.35 a share in the fourth quarter, less than half the consensus estimate for $0.75 per share. That’s brought the after-hours share price jump down from around 10% to a less unreasonable 5% or so. Higher margins and a couple of pennies more in earnings appear to overpower lower deliveries.

Shares are trading up about 5% at $243.50 after-hours in a 52-week range of $116.10 to $291.42. The consensus price target for the shares was around $270.00 before today’s report.

ALSO READ: Tesla Faces Challenges From Mercedes, Porsche, and Audi

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