Since being added to the Dow Jones Industrials index last September, shares of Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) are up just over 11%. In the same period, Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) is up 57%. That is not an entirely fair comparison: Nike’s market value is about $126 billion, compared with Under Armour’s $13 billion, and size often makes a difference when it comes to growth. Adding 57% to $126 billion is a lot harder than adding the same amount to around $7.5 billion.
Source: Wikimedia Commons
When Nike reported fiscal third-quarter results after markets closed Thursday night, earnings per share were up 3% and beat the consensus estimate by $0.04. Revenues also beat estimates, and the company is heading into the World Cup tournament with orders up 12% to $10.9 billion for the period between March and July.
The not-so-good news came from China, where future orders are down 1% and where a strong dollar negatively impacts currency exchange rates. The company also noted rising costs for chemicals and leather as headwinds.
When Under Armour last reported earnings in late January, shares jumped 22% in one day and have added another 16% since then. The company has grown at a rate of more than 20% per quarter for the past 15 quarters, according to one analyst firm, and that growth could continue for a while yet. The company also announced a two-for-one stock split on Monday.
Then Thursday, analysts at Sterne Agee dropped the stock’s rating from Buy to Neutral on a valuation call. The firm thinks Under Armour may have run too far, too fast. The analysts also noted that the company is trading at 49 times the per-share profit estimate for 2015, more than double the 24 times estimate for Nike. Essentially, Sterne Agee believes that Under Armour’s gains so far this year are already booked.
And Nike? The consensus price target is around $81.60, which yields an implied upside of around 6.5%. That’s not great but it’s not in overbought territory like Under Armour. And do not ignore the World Cup impact on Nike’s fortunes for the next several months at least. It could be substantial.
Nike shares were down 3.4% in early trading on Friday, at $76.68 in a 52-week range of $53.53 to $80.26. Under Armour shares traded down about 0.3%, at $121.52 in a 52-week range of $124.79.
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