Health and Healthcare

The $1 Trillion Drug Market Offers Great but Selective Growth in the Next Five Years

The market for pharmaceuticals and biotech drugs just keeps growing. The so-called patent cliff may be affecting Big Pharma companies locally, but a new report from IMS Health shows that the total spending on medicines alone will hit $1 trillion in 2014, after clocking in at $965 billion in 2012, and then will grow to $1.2 trillion by 2017.

It seems as though there is still opportunity here for generic drug companies, Big Pharma companies and even the biotech leaders. IMS showed that a rapidly expanding middle class and stronger economic prospects in developed nations are driving this growth.

Still, this is a picture of slower growth. The new post-2014 projection is that global medicine sales will rise by 3% to 6% annually over the next five years. This slowing growth over the next five years reflects reduced spending increases in many developed markets after continuing austerity measures.

Other growth factors include expensive new specialty drugs for cancer and other ailments rising to between $230 billion and $240 billion by 2017. That is some 38% higher than the $171 billion from 2012.

The new report also suggests that austerity will have an impact on drug spending, with developed nations turning in 1% to 4% drug spending growth after posting a drop in 2012. The real opportunity lies perhaps in emerging economies, where spending is expected to rise 10% to 13%.

Before we get into the opportunities here for major companies, we would first send you to Drugs.com, which shows the largest selling drugs by name in 2012. The top 20 drugs accounted for close to $63 billion in the United States sales alone, and that did not count two drugs for which the data was said to be unavailable.

What is interesting here is that both Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) are slow growers and, due to restructuring and patent cliffs, may have very limited growth ahead. Pfizer is worth $206 billion, but revenue expectations are expected to be $51.3 billion in 2013 and $49.9 billion in 2014. Merck is worth about $140 billion in market cap, and revenue expectations are $44.1 billion for 2013 and $43.6 billion in 2014.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE: TEVA) is one of the globe’s most widely recognized generic drug makers. Unfortunately, its stock is most recognized for losses of late. Its market cap is down to $32.5 billion or so, and the consensus price target indicates less than 10% upside, even at this suppressed stock price. Revenues are expected to be roughly $20 billion in each 2013 and 2014, after years of consistent growth.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is the largest biotech by market cap, with a market value of $106 billion, and analysts have expected upside of another 14% in the shares over the next year. Revenue is expected to have grown 12% in 2013 to $10.9 billion, followed by 26% growth in 2014 to $13.7 billion.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is the second largest biotech by market value, at $87 billion. Wall Street analysts see about 9% upside in the next year for the stock. The problem with Amgen is that growth has slowed way down, and sales are expected to grow only by 7% to $18.5 billion in 2013 and then by just under 6% to $19.5 billion in 2014.

Express Scripts Holding Co. (NASDAQ: ESRX) is a key pharmacy benefit management company, and it will be keeping a close eye on pharmaceutical drug sales trends ahead. Its market value is $52 billion, and its sales growth is expected to be about 10% to $103.5 billion in 2013, followed by a tiny decline to $103.3 billion in 2014.

24/7 Wall St. and others have covered the changing times for drug companies and the growth of biotech for years now. The IMS Health study does offer at least some hope of a continued picture. That picture likely will be more favorable to biotech than to Big Pharma, but the pharmaceutical giants are all positioning themselves for smoother operations in the next decade.

History has also shown over and over that these pharmaceutical giants can and are willing to spend handily for great growth stories.

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