Technology

What a Combined Nokia/Alcatel-Lucent Might Really Look Like

The world of advanced communications technology could be about to become even more consolidated. This time it could be two key European technology giants merging rather than U.S. companies acquiring them. Reports that Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) and Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) are in advanced merger discussions had both companies reacting to the news. While the deal might be better for Alcatel-Lucent than Nokia, at least on the surface, 24/7 Wall St. could not help but to ponder what a combined Nokia-Alcatel/Lucent might really look like in 2016 and beyond.

For starters, what might get sold off or what might be enhanced? Then there are regulatory and shareholder issues. There is also the integration issue of foreign companies with employees who might not always be on the same side or who might not integrate well. Lastly, what other deals could get triggered, or what other companies might be up for consideration?

There could be regulatory hurdles in at least some of the jurisdictions. French regulators have reportedly said they would welcome a deal like this, but there are many jurisdictions where both companies operate independently. There are also likely to be some customer overlaps, some of which might not be a “1 + 1 = 2” scenario in every instance. Again, the reaction to the deal looks like it would be more beneficial to Alcatel-Lucent than to Nokia. Still, one never knows until terms of a deal are announced.

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Nokia now offers network infrastructure products and services around the globe. Its four segments are Mobile Broadband (mobile voice and data), Global Services (network implementation and network modernization, hardware and software maintenance, etc.), HERE (mapping, location intelligence, location-based services, and local commerce) and Technologies. Its large mobile operator clients include Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DoCoMo, Softbank, Sprint, Telefónica, Verizon and Vodafone. Word has been out for a while that Nokia may sell its mapping unit — which would ultimately help Nokia pay for Alcatel-Lucent.

Nokia is the darling of Finland. Its long slow decline ultimately led to the sale of its handset unit to Microsoft. Now many investors have a hard time really knowing what they are investing in. Nokia American depositary shares (ADSs) were down 4% at $7.96 at the close of trading in New York. Trading volume of 77 million ADSs was about four times normal on the day. Its market cap is listed as roughly $29 billion on Yahoo! Finance. What may matter the most here is that Nokia’s balance sheet.

As far as Alcatel-Lucent, the French tech and advanced communications outfit has been involved in a turnaround and its shift plan for what feels like an endless number of years now. It is involved in networking, ultra-broadband access and cloud technology for the ultra-connected world. Its customers are made up of telecom and cable operators, defense forces and governments, and large enterprises in industry and infrastructure. The company recently passed a 300 million DSL port mark as well.

Alcatel-Lucent is the technology darling of France. Still, Alcatel is the French giant and it acquired Lucent years ago. Perhaps the greatest asset it received was the old Bell Labs patent portfolio. Alcatel-Lucent ADSs were up over 13% at $4.93 at the close of trading in New York. It was also on 80 million shares, or over 11 times normal trading volume. This even hits a 52-week high that was actually a high back to 2011. Yahoo! Finance actually showed the post-gain market cap as being $13.75 billion or so.

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Elsewhere there was a fallout in competing companies. Most were up on hopes for more consolidation in a space in which analysts and investors have wondered about mergers for years.

Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) has been a merger candidate for years, at least according to the rumor mill. Its shares closed up 7% at $21.38 on Tuesday. Ciena’s 52-week trading range is $13.77 to $22.94, and its consensus analyst price target is $24.89. Ciena’s market cap is $2.3 billion.

Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) is often referred to as the “mini-Cisco” in the technology world. Its market is nearly $10 billion. At $23.99, it has a 52-week range of $18.41 to $26.13, and the consensus price target is $23.37. Rumors that Juniper would be in M&A talk have been around for years as well, but often as a bolt-on acquirer rather than as a target itself.

Infinera Corp. (NASDAQ: INFN) was up almost 3% at $20.37 on Tuesday, but investors might want to consider that this $2.6 billion company is already involved in a $350 million acquisition of a smaller player in Europe.

Multi-billion cross-border mergers and acquisitions are not always easy to pull off. Even if the deals get approved by shareholders, they can frequently run into integration issues. While Nokia confirmed that talks were active, the company did note that there are no certainties regarding this merger. Stay tuned.

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