Special Report

COVID-19: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Metro Area Among the Safest in America

Evan Comen

Published: October 22, 2021 10:45 pm

The U.S. reported over 551,000 new cases of coronavirus over the seven days ending October 21, bringing the total count to more than 44.8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 724,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 27.1 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 28.1 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While new data shows that the risk of contracting COVID-19 is high in almost every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks and superspreader events. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro area consists of Durham County, Orange County, Chatham County, and two other counties. As of October 21, there were 10,433.5 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 Durham residents, the 42nd lowest rate of all 383 metro areas with available data. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 13,893.5 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

The incidence of coronavirus cases depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Durham-Chapel Hill metro area, Granville County has the highest incidence of COVID-19 cases. As of October 21, there were 13,189.4 cases per 100,000 residents in Granville County, the most of any county in Durham-Chapel Hill, and far greater than the county with the lowest incidence. In Orange County, there were 8,063.6 cases per 100,000 residents — the least of any county in Durham-Chapel Hill.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In the Durham-Chapel Hill metro area, unemployment peaked at 10.8% in May 2020. As of May 2021, the metro area’s unemployment rate was 3.7%.

To determine how the incidence of COVID-19 in the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro area compares to the rest of the country, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked metro areas based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents.To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in North Carolina where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).