The inflation forecast has come down a bit and GDP forecasts are up a bit. GDP for 2009 was raised to -0.4% to -0.1% for the year, up from -1.5% to -1.0%. For 2010 that figure has been moved to +2.5% to +3.5% from a prior range of +2.1% to +3.3%. The 2010 PCE inflation was raised to +1.3% to +1.6% from +1.2% to +1.8%.
But for 2011, the FOMC is targeting real GDP at a range of 3.4% to 4.5%, down from a prior 3.8% to 4.6%. Maybe they figured out that higher taxes will slow the economy.
The core inflation rate for 2010 is still +1.0 to +1.5%. But the average for US unemployment has now been targeted at 9.3% to 9.7%, down from a prior target of 9.5% to 9.8%. The new range for 2011 unemployment is 8.2% to 8.6%, down from 8.4% to 8.8%. It also gave a 2012 forecast of 6.8% to 7.5%.
While the data was before the official unemployment crossing above 10%, it is probably a safe bet that they had that data at least on a rough and preliminary basis.
You can read the rest at the FOMC site.
JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 24, 2009
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