A Preview Shows Unemployment Will Rise

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If preview data about employment is any indication, the US government should report a modest uptick in joblessness tomorrow. That would not be particularly surprising give the trend in weekly jobless claims and the recent data from ADP on private payrolls.

A new Gallup poll shows that “The unemployment rate component of Gallup’s underemployment measure increased from 8.9% at the end of July to 9.1% in mid-August, and now stands at 9.3%.” The research firm’s overall data show that those who are unemployed along with people working part-time also rose. “Underemployment, as measured by Gallup, was 18.6% in August, up from 18.4% at the end of July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April and has yet to break below 18.3% this year.”

Gallup claims that this data is a good preview of the data released by the Labor Department at the beginning of each month covering numbers from the prior month

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking survey Aug. 2-31, 2010, with a random sample of 17,917 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

Douglas A. McIntyre