Economy

US Population to Hit 324 Million in 2016, 400 Million in 2050

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: January 3, 2016 8:56 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 3:31 pm

The U.S. population is aging, and is moving away from one which is largely descended from people who came from Europe and more toward people from Central America, Mexico, and Asia. And, the rate at which the U.S population is growing has stagnated. There will be 323,996,000 Americans in 2016, barely up from 321,369,000 last year and slightly less than 326,626,000 in 2017. The U.S. population will not reach over 400,000,000 until 2051, when the Census forecasts it will reach 400,124,000. And, it will grow slowly beyond then.

The typical forecasts for the results of these population patterns is that more people in the U.S. will soon be 65 or older, 75 or older, and 85 and older. Many of these won’t have the resources to retire. Therefore, they will keep working, probably squeezing out younger people who would normally move into the jobs more easily than if older people had left the workforce entirely.

For the population to grow so slowly each year toward the middle of the century, most people will need to have smaller families than at most points in the past. In theory, this should mean more jobs, with less competition for work. But, then, there are the older Americans holding on to make a living.

As an aside, and rarely mentioned, at least in the government’s analysis of the employment opportunities of Americans in the future, is the jobs which will be surrendered to machines. According to a recent study analyzed in the MIT Technology Review, “45 percent of American jobs are at high risk of being taken by computers within the next two decades.” An huge army of Americans without jobs.

The Census could be wrong, and almost certainly will be. It does not take into account potential changes in immigration patterns, natural catastrophes, wars, tiny increases in the sizes of families (which taken as a single trend on its own could add millions of people in two decades).

Over 400 million people. It seems a lot. But, it really isn’t. China’s population is already over three times that size, and surging. And, it probably has fewer machines