Whither the Markets?
U.S. stock markets will continue their runs at a year of positive returns. The DJIA is up barely 1%. The S&P 500 is nearly 5% higher. The margins between flat results and positive ones are so small that trading in the last week of the year could make the difference. A gain is more likely than a loss if no bad news arises out of Europe. News about sovereign difficulty in the region has done as much to depress U.S. market returns throughout the year as any other single factor.
Holiday Sales
When holiday sales are totaled, both bricks-and-mortar and e-commerce numbers should be well higher than last year. Digital sales were up 15% as the last shopping week of the year began. Store sales were up by 3% to 4%, based on most calculations. Observers who hope that consumer activity will stretch into next year will have to wait at least two months. The effects of a long-term reduction in taxes and long-term extensions of unemployment benefits are that important. Congress will fight over them until late February or beyond.
The Future of Yahoo!
The drama about Yahoo!’s (NASDAQ: YHOO) future will be a dominant part of the financial news in the new year, despite the company’s relatively small sales and market cap. Interest in Yahoo! is based on the fact that so many Americans visit the site. It had more than 100 million unique visitors in October. Yahoo! may sell all or part of its valuable Asian assets. There are also rumors that one or more private equity firms will buy equity stakes in Yahoo! New capital probably will not overcome Yahoo!’s lack of display advertising growth in a time when revenue increasingly goes to huge emerging businesses, led by Facebook.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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