Investing

The Apple Car Is Dead, Which Automaker Will They Buy?

Austin Smith

Published: March 12, 2024 11:32 am

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) recently announced the shuttering of ‘Project Titan’, the not-so-secret Apple car project pursued for the last decade. At the time the project was closed the team numbered 2,000 individuals. 

In total, the company has invested $10 billion and is reported to have been pursuing true level 5 autonomy. But cost overruns and a lack of real progress led to the decision to close it down. With an epic $40 billion in cash and another $32 billion in short term investments at the moment, it’s fun to wonder whether they’d be better off buying another automaker today. 

At this point it’s all speculation. Apple rarely makes acquisitions, the largest was Beats in 2014 at $3 billion, and it still stands a brand apart, not truly integrated into the ecosystem the way Airpods have. But as the smartphone market matures and products like the Vision Pro face an uncertain future Apple has to do something to push for growth. 

The traditional US, German, and Japanese automakers are all a poor fit. They are a combination of being too mature, too independent, a poor brand fit for Apple’s sleek and simple ethos, and not tech forward enough to fit in Apple’s portfolio. We can be almost certain Apple would prefer a pure electric brand anyway, and that leaves one of the newer upstarts. Let’s consider the options:

Option 1 – Canoo

Source: Canoo Inc.

There are reports that Apple’s own design mirrored the smooth van like shape that Canoo has also pursued, with the front and the rear mirroring each other. At only $96 million in market cap Apple could certainly cut the check rather easily, but doing so wouldn’t seem to push their initiatives much further than Project Titan. The company hasn’t had much in the way of good news and still hasn’t sold a single vehicle. 

• Vehicles Delivered: 0
• Market Cap – $77 million
• An aesthetic match, but little manufacturing progress

Option 2 – Rivian

Source: Courtesy of Rivian

Gene Munster, the popular tech analyst from Deepwater Management recently suggested that it may make sense for Apple to buy Rivian. The company has gone further than many other upstart EV companies the last few years. They have two well reviewed products in the R1T and R1S, and recently announced three more, the R2, R3, and R3x. The company would certainly benefit from Apple’s deep pockets and supply chain expertise. But ultimately it doesn’t feel like a great brand fit. Rivian positions itself a rugged adventure company, which is too narrow for Apple’s mass market, sleek products. 

• Vehicles Delivered: 71,300+
• Market Cap: $12.4 billion
• A well reviewed product, but too niche and granola for Apple’s sleek aesthetic

Option 3 – Lucid

Source: Courtesy of Lucid

At first glance Lucid may make sense. The company is the most premium EV manufacturer on the list here. The sleek Air claims a max power (And fun number play) of 1,234 horsepower, over 500 miles of range, and a sub 2 second 0-60 time depending on trim. When you start to build the ones you actually want they climb over $100,000, with the top of the line Sapphire coming in at a cool quarter million dollars. But, the company has already started to lose some speed as it’s had to lower it’s prices in the face of waning EV demand. The company may want to swap the bottomless wealth of one owner (Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund) with another (Apple), but unless Apple can ultimately sell hundreds of thousands of vehicles the brand won’t fit and this one is already on the retreat. Pass. 

• Vehicles Delivered: 6,001
• Market Cap: $6.9 billion
• A beautiful product that could fit, if it weren’t for the 

Option 4 – Fisker

Source: Fisker Inc.

Henrik Fisker has long been a fixture in the frontier of the next thing in autos, but so far hasn’t been able to land a mass market winner. The Fisker Karma, a beautiful and exciting hybrid sports sedan was first revealed way back in 2007. That’s about the same time as the first Tesla roadster. Since then it’s been a long chain of concept vehicles and capital raises, but no real traction. Just a few weeks ago YouTube celebrity MKBHD recently reviewed the Fisker Ocean SUV, their only current product, and called it the weirdest and worst car he’s ever reviewed. There were a few compliments, all overshadowed by major faults. On top of that, the company is in dire financial straights and had to arrive at an agreement with a noteholder to gain greater flexibility. Not a chance Apple goes near this

• Vehicles Delivered: 4,700
• Market Cap: $181 million
• A long road to a first product and troubled financials

Option 5 – Tesla

Source: Olesia Kononenko / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

The one that got away. Apple famously passed on the chance to acquire the automaker on the even of the Model 3 launch when the company was ‘only’ worth $28 billion. Even with a 20% premium, the company would have cost less than $34 billion for Apple to scoop up. oops! With nearly 2 million deliveries in 2023 alone, Tesla has since reached escape velocity and is the clear leader in EVs domestically. The Model Y continues to be one of the best selling vehicles in it’s class with 1.2 million sold last year, besting Toyota’s popular RAV4. Even after a recent pull back shares are still trading at $547 billion today, and just recently eclipsed $1 trillion. Even for the richest company on earth, Tesla is too big to acquire at these levels, and Musk has to reason to cede control to Apple, whom he has publicly spared with. Fun to imagine, but won’t happen. 

• Vehicles Delivered: Millions
• Market Cap: $550 billion
• The undisputed EV leader in the US, Tesla could have been a great acquisition… years ago. 

Option 6 – Polestar

Source: Shutterstock

This one is interesting. Polestar’s design language is more conservative than Lucid or Rivian, but clearly tech focused and futuristic. They have the Swedish design sense from their Volvo roots, and a good lineup for broad appeal including a sedan and mid size SUV. What’s more, the company has meaningful production (compared to other makers listed here), and premium-enough feeling that could tuck in nicely with macs and iPhones, and no major controversies. The company just announced it raised $950 million for operational needs, something it wouldn’t have to do again if Apple became a suitor. While extremely unlikely that Apple buys any automaker on this list, if it had to be one Polestar is the best bet. 

• Vehicles Delivered: 162,000+
• Market cap: $3.4 billion
• A sleek design, high deliveries, and no major brand tarnishing controversies