Why This Analyst Still Thinks Pandora Is a Huge Buy
One key analyst has taken a contrarian position Pandora Media and still sees significant upside from the online music streamer.
Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) reported its third-quarter financial results after the markets closed on Thursday, and investors had an incredibly negative reaction to it, with shares down nearly a third. However amid this negative sentiment from investors and the price target cuts from analysts, one key analyst has taken a contrarian position and still sees significant upside from this online streamer.
The company had a net loss of $0.40 per share on $311.6 million in revenue, which compares to Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of $0.10 in earnings per share (EPS) on revenue of $312.97 million. In the same period of the previous year, Pandora posted EPS of $0.09 and $239.59 million in revenue.
Canaccord Genuity maintained its Buy rating but lowered its price target to $24 from $26, implying an upside of 80% from the current price level. Also the firm lowered its revenue and EPS estimates to reflect slower listener growth and slightly more marketing spend. The full year 2015 and 2016 EPS estimates go from $0.19 and $0.49 to $0.10 and $0.38, respectively.
The firm’s Michael Graham and Austin Moldow detailed this position in the report:
Pandora’s third quarter results and guidance contained several weak points. Revenue and EBITDA were in-line, but listeners, hours, and the revenue outlook were all light. In particular, management noted a more intense competitive environment for at least third quarter and fourth quarter, with promotions from Spotify and advertising from Apple creating headwinds for listener growth. We acknowledge this quarter’s setbacks, and this does challenge some of our bullishness. However, we note the potential for several things to change quickly, including: 1) CRB certainty; 2) easing of current competitive climate as promotional activity wanes; 3) likely international expansion that could shift some of the listener growth burden outside the U.S.; 4) potential for ticketing to emerge as a growth tailwind. Therefore, we are more inclined to buy the stock on the weakness related to third quarter results.
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A few bullish highlights from the third-quarter earnings report were that revenue and EBITDA were essentially in-line with guidance, and ad revenue per thousand impressions (RPM) expanded by 28% year over year to $57, with mobile ad RPM expanding 33%.
On the bearish side, listeners declined by 1.3 million sequentially, largely due to competitive pressure. Canaccord believes that may prove temporary. Listener hours grew by only 3% year over year, and revenue guidance implies flat sequential RPM in the fourth quarter.
Pandora lowered full-year revenue guidance by roughly 25 million to a midpoint of $1.16 billion, which was the midpoint after the company reported its fourth quarter from last year. Management expects only 3% hours growth in the fourth quarter, and for this to present a tighter inventory environment. Guidance also implies sequentially flat RPM, which would be unprecedented for the fourth quarter and makes the firm believe it could be conservative.
Shares of Pandora were down over 31% at $13.24 late Friday morning, with a consensus analyst price target of $22.96 and a 52-week trading range of $11.50 to $22.60.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
