This Will Be America's Smallest State in 2040

It is no secret that Florida, which barely had three-quarter of a million residents in 1910, jumped over the century to become the third-most populous state with over 22 million residents in 2022. Conversely, Iowa, which had about 2.2 million residents back in 1910, ranking 15 highest at the time, grew considerably less — to 3.2 million residents by 2022, ranking as the 19th smallest state today. The question now is what will happen over the next 20 years or so.

Regionally, several trends have emerged in recent years, particularly domestic migration to the South. Indeed, recently-released 2023 data from the Census show that the South — the nation’s most populous region — added over 1.4 million residents mostly through net domestic and international migration. (Also see: Cities With the Highest Influx of New Residents Last Year.)

The Midwest had a moderate population gain of 0.2% in 2023, with the Census noting a slowdown in population loss in Illinois. In the West,  California, Oregon, and Hawaii continued to lose population, though of course there is no danger that California, the nation’s most populous state, will become the smallest any time soon. Similarly, while New York and Pennsylvania’s population continued to decline, they are not in danger of becoming the smallest states.

To determine which state will be America’s smallest in 2040, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the National Population Projections published by the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Services. All states and the District of Columbia are ranked here by their projected 2040 population from largest to smallest.

We added snapshot information about the states to provide context to current conditions. These include gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars, which came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate figures, which came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the national value is $320,000; and median home values, which came from the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey.

According to the group’s projections, Vermont will be the smallest state in America in 2040, with a population of 601,865, followed closely by Wyoming and Alaska. None of the three will cross the 1 million population mark. Moreover, Vermont is one of several states projected to have fewer residents than today. On the other hand, Texas will have come very close to being the largest state in America by 2040, though California will have held on to its first-place spot.

51. California

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• 2040 projected population: 46,467,001
• 2022 population: 39,029,342 — the highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $3,641.6 billion — the highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.1% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $715,900 — 2nd highest

50. Texas

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• 2040 projected population: 40,015,913
• 2022 population: 30,029,572 — 2nd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,402.1 billion — 2nd highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $275,400 — 22nd lowest

49. Florida

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• 2040 projected population: 28,886,983
• 2022 population: 22,244,823 — 3rd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,439.1 billion — 4th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $354,100 — 19th highest

48. New York

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• 2040 projected population: 20,873,488
• 2022 population: 19,677,151 — 4th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $2,048.4 billion — 3rd highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $400,400 — 13th highest

47. Georgia

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• 2040 projected population: 12,820,271
• 2022 population: 10,912,876 — 8th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $767.4 billion — 8th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $297,400 — 25th highest

46. Pennsylvania

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• 2040 projected population: 12,809,150
• 2022 population: 12,972,008 — 5th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $911.8 billion — 6th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $245,500 — 18th lowest

45. North Carolina

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• 2040 projected population: 12,658,927
• 2022 population: 10,698,973 — 9th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $716.0 billion — 11th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $280,600 — 23rd lowest

44. Illinois

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• 2040 projected population: 12,397,564
• 2022 population: 12,582,032 — 6th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $1,025.7 billion — 5th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $251,600 — 19th lowest

43. Ohio

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• 2040 projected population: 11,751,540
• 2022 population: 11,756,058 — 7th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $826.0 billion — 7th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $204,100 — 8th lowest

42. Michigan

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• 2040 projected population: 9,960,115
• 2022 population: 10,034,118 — 10th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $622.6 billion — 14th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $224,400 — 13th lowest

41. Virginia

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• 2040 projected population: 9,876,728
• 2022 population: 8,683,619 — 12th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $663.1 billion — 13th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $365,700 — 18th highest

40. Washington

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• 2040 projected population: 9,776,126
• 2022 population: 7,785,786 — 13th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $738.1 billion — 10th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $569,500 — 4th highest

39. New Jersey

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• 2040 projected population: 9,470,012
• 2022 population: 9,261,699 — 11th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $754.9 billion — 9th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $428,900 — 11th highest

38. Arizona

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• 2040 projected population: 9,166,279
• 2022 population: 7,359,197 — 14th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $475.7 billion — 18th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $402,800 — 12th highest

37. Tennessee

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• 2040 projected population: 7,823,662
• 2022 population: 7,051,339 — 15th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $485.7 billion — 16th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $284,800 — 24th lowest

36. Massachusetts

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• 2040 projected population: 7,742,628
• 2022 population: 6,981,974 — 16th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $691.5 billion — 12th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $534,700 — 5th highest

35. Colorado

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• 2040 projected population: 7,692,907
• 2022 population: 5,839,926 — 21st highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $491.3 billion — 15th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $531,100 — 6th highest

34. Indiana

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• 2040 projected population: 7,095,000
• 2022 population: 6,833,037 — 17th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $470.3 billion — 19th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.6% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $208,700 — 10th lowest

33. Maryland

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• 2040 projected population: 6,842,902
• 2022 population: 6,164,660 — 19th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $480.1 billion — 17th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 1.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $398,100 — 14th highest

32. Minnesota

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• 2040 projected population: 6,364,886
• 2022 population: 5,717,184 — 22nd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $448.0 billion — 20th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $314,600 — 23rd highest

31. Missouri

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• 2040 projected population: 6,359,970
• 2022 population: 6,177,957 — 18th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.9 billion — 21st highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $221,200 — 12th lowest

30. South Carolina

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• 2040 projected population: 6,352,502
• 2022 population: 5,282,634 — 23rd highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.5 billion — 24th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $254,600 — 21st lowest

29. Wisconsin

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• 2040 projected population: 5,997,137
• 2022 population: 5,892,539 — 20th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $396.2 billion — 22nd highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $252,800 — 20th lowest

28. Oregon

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• 2040 projected population: 5,164,041
• 2022 population: 4,240,137 — 25th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $297.3 billion — 25th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $475,600 — 8th highest

27. Louisiana

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• 2040 projected population: 5,062,780
• 2022 population: 4,590,241 — 25th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $292.0 billion — 26th highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.7% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $209,200 — 11th lowest

26. Alabama

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• 2040 projected population: 5,056,796
• 2022 population: 5,074,296 — 24th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $281.6 billion — 25th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.6% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $200,900 — 7th lowest

25. Kentucky

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• 2040 projected population: 4,714,761
• 2022 population: 4,512,310 — 26th highest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $259.0 billion — 24th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $196,300 — 6th lowest

24. Oklahoma

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• 2040 projected population: 4,439,038
• 2022 population: 4,019,800 — 24th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $242.7 billion — 22nd lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $191,700 — 4th lowest

23. Utah

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• 2040 projected population: 4,344,339
• 2022 population: 3,380,800 — 22nd lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $256.4 billion — 23rd lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $499,500 — 7th highest

22. Nevada

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• 2040 projected population: 4,058,371
• 2022 population: 3,177,772 — 20th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $222.9 billion — 20th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $434,700 — 9th highest

21. Connecticut

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• 2040 projected population: 3,542,707
• 2022 population: 3,626,205 — 23rd lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $319.3 billion — 23rd highest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $347,200 — 20th highest

20. Iowa

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• 2040 projected population: 3,392,783
• 2022 population: 3,200,517 — 21st lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $238.3 billion — 21st lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $194,600 — 5th lowest

19. Arkansas

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• 2040 projected population: 3,217,535
• 2022 population: 3,045,637 — 19th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $166.0 billion — 18th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.4% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $179,800 — 3rd lowest

18. Kansas

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• 2040 projected population: 3,032,653
• 2022 population: 2,937,150 — 17th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $209.3 billion — 19th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.8% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $206,600 — 9th lowest

17. Mississippi

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• 2040 projected population: 2,962,160
• 2022 population: 2,940,057 — 18th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $140.0 billion — 15th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $162,500 — 2nd lowest

16. Idaho

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• 2040 projected population: 2,227,842
• 2022 population: 1,939,033 — 14th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $110.9 billion — 13th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $432,500 — 10th highest

15. Nebraska

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• 2040 projected population: 2,190,918
• 2022 population: 1,967,923 — 15th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $164.9 billion — 16th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $232,400 — 14th lowest

14. New Mexico

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• 2040 projected population: 2,127,318
• 2022 population: 2,113,344 — 16th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $125.5 billion — 14th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest

13. West Virginia

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• 2040 projected population: 1,661,849
• 2022 population: 1,775,156 — 13th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $97.4 billion — 10th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.3% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $155,100 — the lowest

12. Hawaii

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• 2040 projected population: 1,619,703
• 2022 population: 1,440,196 — 12th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $101.1 billion — 11th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $820,100 — the highest

11. New Hampshire

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• 2040 projected population: 1,393,451
• 2022 population: 1,395,231 — 11th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $105.0 billion — 12th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $384,700 — 15th highest

10. Maine

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• 2040 projected population: 1,326,159
• 2022 population: 1,385,340 — 10th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $85.8 billion — 8th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $290,600 — 25th lowest

9. Montana

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• 2040 projected population: 1,236,304
• 2022 population: 1,122,867 — 9th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $67.1 billion — 4th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $366,400 — 17th highest

8. Delaware

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• 2040 projected population: 1,164,344
• 2022 population: 1,018,396 — 7th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $90.2 billion — 9th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $337,200 — 21st highest

7. North Dakota

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• 2040 projected population: 1,060,457
• 2022 population: 779,261 — 5th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.7 billion — 6th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 1.9% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $243,100 — 16th lowest

6. District of Columbia

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• 2040 projected population: 1,058,820
• 2022 population: 671,803 — 3rd lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $165.1 billion — 17th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 5.1% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $711,100 — 3rd highest

5. Rhode Island

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• 2040 projected population: 1,055,318
• 2022 population: 1,093,734 — 8th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $72.8 billion — 7th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $383,900 — 16th highest

4. South Dakota

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• 2040 projected population: 1,043,032
• 2022 population: 909,824 — 6th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $68.8 billion — 5th lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $245,000 — 17th lowest

3. Alaska

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• 2040 projected population: 819,954
• 2022 population: 733,583 — 4th lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $65.7 billion — 3rd lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 4.5% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $336,900 — 22nd highest

2. Wyoming

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• 2040 projected population: 615,787
• 2022 population: 581,381 — the lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $49.1 billion — 2nd lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 3.0% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $292,300 — 26th highest

1. Vermont

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• 2040 projected population: 601,865
• 2022 population: 647,064 — 2nd lowest out of 50 states and DC
• GDP (current dollars), 2022: $40.8 billion — the lowest
• Unemployment rate, Dec 2023: 2.2% — compared to 3.6% national rate
• Median home value, 2022: $304,700 — 24th highest