Retail

Why JC Penney Shares Are Worth Only $7 ... or Worth $13

If there is a turnaround retail story that involves millions of customers each year, the one under question the most now has to be J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP). Many investors and analysts alike have lightened up on just how dire and negative this department store’s turnaround story is. Just don’t tell that to Citigroup, as the analyst initiated coverage with a Sell rating.

24/7 Wall St. wanted to look at both sides of the coin here. The Citi Sell rating came with a $7.00 price target. This compares with a $9.79 prior closing price. Another recent call had a polar opposite view. Sterne Agee CRT just raised J.C. Penney’s stock rating to Buy from Neutral, nine days earlier than Citi’s nasty Sell rating. On top of that, the call came with a $13.00 price target.

When you see polar opposites of this nature, sometimes it is best to compare and contrast the reports. While one contains mostly strengths, the other contains mostly weakness.

Citigroup’s $7.00 target and Sell rating was from Paul Lejuez, with the view that management is in a hard place and recovering from a failed turnaround strategy. One weakness is that cash flows are not there to allow for a reinvesting to win back customers in a highly competitive retail environment.

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What was interesting was that Citi’s downside call did not only predict downward sales. It could even see improvement in the top line. It is just a concern that the gain there will not generate the needed boost in free cash flow.

Citi thinks it will be tough for J.C. Penney to recover from its past missteps. The company was said to be behind in e-commerce against peers. The cash flow improvement could be elusive for years, and the retailer may not be able to improve sales productivity. A last concern is that all of the paths to reach its 2017 sales goals seem aggressive.

And what about that Sterne Agee CRT call from Monday of the prior week? Certainly the world hasn’t changed that much in the past nine days. That being said, the move to ditch the pension obligations by 25% to 35% was released after the Sterne Agee CRT call.

Sterne Agee CRT’s Buy rating and $13.00 price target from Charles Grom was after the firm was able to sit down with J.C. Penney’s new chief executive officer. What was expressed was a confidence in the company’s turnaround plan, for a potential value that is one-third higher than just the current turnaround valuation. Sterne Agee’s call also noted that the new CEO had the demeanor and business knowledge to guide the company through a turnaround.

Another aspect of the positive call was that the current goal of $1.2 billion in EBITDA for 2017 may move from a ceiling to a floor. Multiple levers were viewed for boosting same-store sales. New presentations for it and the opportunity for e-commerce recovery and leadership potential were also cited. Lastly were organizational efficiencies and cost savings, which will all add to gross margin improvements.

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When you see polar opposite calls within the same few days it can be mind-numbing. That being said, a lot of the weaknesses in the very negative Citigroup call were viewed as obstacles and hurdles that could be overcome in the Sterne Agee CRT call. Hey, that is what makes a ballgame for you.

Shares of J.C. Penney have a $9.71 consensus analyst price target. That was lower than the consensus price target of $10.03 after the Sterne Agee CRT upgrade.

J.C. Penney shares were down 4% at $9.40 in mid-Wednesday afternoon trading. There was almost more than 13 million shares traded, already more a full day’s normal average trading volume. J.C. Penney has a 52-week trading range of $5.90 to $10.20 and a $2.9 billion market cap.

One last issue to consider in the horse race for investing is how much the stock is shorted. It turns out that short sellers remain very active, with the latest short interest reading of over 97.5 million shares being well within the norm for 2015. That is a massive short interest, about one-third of its float.

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