Special Report
The Nevada Caucuses in 8 Charts
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The results of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary provided a snapshot of voter sentiments in the Midwest and New England. Now, with Nevada’s Democratic caucuses slotted for Saturday, February 20, and the Republican event scheduled for Tuesday, Americans will get a clearer picture of voter sentiment in the Southwest.
Voter turnout rates during primary elections decline over time as candidates generate momentum and it becomes clearer who the nominee will ultimately be. Therefore, states scheduled to vote earlier in the election process are believed to set the tone for the election season. Primaries and caucuses in these states receive national attention, and politicians, too, dedicate disproportionately large amounts of time and money to swaying the electorates in these areas.
24/7 Wall St. took a closer look at Nevada’s political climate, both heading into the caucuses on Saturday and over the course of history. How much is really at stake for candidates in this early nominating contest? What unique features of Nevada are important going into this year’s race?
Click here to see the Nevada caucuses in 8 charts.
Click here to see the South Carolina primary in 8 charts.
Demographically, Nevada is more representative of the country as a whole than Iowa or New Hampshire. While 87.1% of Iowa’s population and 91.2% of New Hampshire’s population identifies as white, Nevada is only 51.3% white — much closer to the 61.9% national share. Similarly, the 27.8% share of state residents who identify as Hispanic or Latino is more in line with the 17.3% national share of Hispanic and Latino than it is in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Beyond demographics, Nevada is also more representative of the nation’s political preferences overall. Nevada has been the most accurate predictor of the presidency in the last century, electing through popular vote 24 of the last 25 winners of the presidential election.
In addition to its bellwether status, Nevada is also historically a swing state. President George Bush won Nevada in 2000 and 2004, and President Barack Obama won it in 2008 and 2012. In the last four presidential elections, no candidate has won the state by more than a 13 point margin.
Nevada’s young Latino vote will be decisive in both Republican and Democratic caucuses. Immigration has emerged as one of 2016’s biggest campaign issues.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are vying for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. Six Republicans — Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump — are still in the race for their party’s presidential nomination.
On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Sanders believe in paving a path to citizenship for immigrants whose status is currently illegal.
On the Republican side, Bush, Carson, Kasich, and Rubio believe in establishing a process for undocumented immigrants to remain in the country, albeit not becoming citizens. Cruz is against altering the legality of undocumented immigrants, and Trump is in favor of deporting the contested group from the nation’s borders altogether.
After securing an expected victory in New Hampshire and losing by a surprisingly thin margin in Iowa, a win in Nevada could demonstrate Sanders’ ability to carry a diverse citizenry. Clinton won the Nevada Democratic caucuses in 2008, and claims to have more than three times the volunteers Sanders has in the state. However, as seen in New Hampshire, a victory in the last caucus has been no guarantee of victory this year.
Cruz’s most prominent super PAC is investing heavily in Nevada, most recently spending $573,000 on a television ad campaign in the state. Meanwhile, Trump, who is confident in the brand recognition he has garnered through his casino and real estate properties in the state, is spending relatively little time in Nevada. He currently has just two speaking events scheduled, on the day of and the day prior to the caucus.
After the South Carolina primaries and Nevada caucuses, the race for party nomination will move to Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia for Super Tuesday.
Nevada’s caucus system is relatively new. Prior to 2008, Nevada held primaries to elect the party nominee. Below are eight visualizations that aim to capture key attributes of Nevada’s voting population.
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Unlike most historic swing states, Nevada’s voter turnout has lagged behind the national voter turnout. In the last four presidential elections, an average of 57.7% of eligible voters in Nevada cast a ballot compared to 62.3% nationwide. The peaks and troughs represent higher voter turnout during presidential elections and relatively low turnout during midterm elections.
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Nevada’s electorate has a relatively weak voter turnout. State residents who do not vote cite being “too busy, conflicting work or school schedule” as the main reason for not voting, followed by people who “didn’t like candidates or campaign issues”.
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The poverty status, education and income levels of a population can influence how an area’s electorate will vote and the turnout. Apart from college attainment, Nevada’s social and economic characteristics often align with the nation as a whole. Education is a major driver of voter turnout as well as financial security. Of eligible Nevada adults with a college degree, 75.0% made it to the polls in 2012 versus a comparable 77.1% of adults with similar education nationwide. Overall, voter turnout rate that year was 57.9% in Nevada and 61.8% nationwide.
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Nevada has historically been a swing state, and since the state’s outcome tends to predict the presidency, turnout is Nevada arguably more decisive to the Presidential election than in the rest of the country. In the last four presidential elections, no candidate has won Nevada by a margin larger than 13 percentage points.
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Nevada is more representative of the country’s demographics than Iowa or New Hampshire. Race can be a major factor in voter turnout and in political preference. While around 90% of Iowa and New Hampshire’s populations are white, Nevada’s population is only 51.3% white. More than one in four Nevada residents identify as Hispanic or Latino, a cohort that will have a significant impact in the outcome of the caucus.
24/7 Wall St.6.
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Immigration policy has emerged as one of the biggest political issues in the 2016 election. On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Sanders believe in paving a path to citizenship for immigrants whose status is currently illegal. On the Republican side, positions range from allowing undocumented immigrants to remain in the country — a belief held by Bush, Carson, Kasich, and Rubio — to the complete deportation of the contested group from the nation’s borders — a facet of Trump’s platform. According to data from the Pew Research Center, Nevada has the largest share of illegal immigrants of any state, perhaps making immigration policy all the more important in the coming caucuses.
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Over the last century, no state has been a more accurate predictor of the presidency than Nevada. The candidate to win the state has gone on the win the national election in 24 of the last 25 elections. The only exception occurred in 1976, when Gerald Ford won the state but lost the presidential election to Jimmy Carter.
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With the bulk of Iowa and New Hampshire’s populations consisting of white residents, the Nevada caucuses are the first time the country will hear the political voice of the Hispanic and Latino voters in the 2016 election. Voter turnout amongst Hispanic and Latino voters in Nevada has been slightly higher than Hispanic and Latino turnout nationwide in the past three presidential elections, and slightly lower in midterm elections.
Click here to see the South Carolina primary in 8 charts.
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