After a surge in U.S. firearms sales during the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for handguns, shotguns, and rifles began this year to decline toward pre-pandemic levels.
Nationwide, the number of adjusted firearms background checks, a proxy for the number of legal firearms purchases, was almost flat in the first five months of 2023 compared to the same period last year, with just a 0.4% increase across the 50 states, from 8,456,011 to 8,490,288, or about 25.5 background checks per 1,000 people nationwide — from 7 per 1,000 people in Hawaii to 59 per 1,000 in Oregon.
Firearm background checks declined in 28 states in May, ranging from a virtually flat 0.1% decrease in Maine to a 30% plunge in Washington state. The decline was greater than 2% in 20 of these states.
To identify the 20 states where gun sales are decreasing fastest, 24/7 Wall St. used data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System, looking at the states with the largest percentage decrease in adjusted-firearm background checks from May 2022 to May 2023. To reach a more accurate approximation of gun sales, we excluded checks for such categories as pawn shop transactions, returns, rentals, and rechecks (which are conducted periodically by some states on existing permit holders).
Even after adjusting background checks, they still only serve as a rough approximation of gun sales because every state has different background checks laws and accounting practices. Likely in all states, background check figures are inflated or underestimated proxies for gun sales.
Population sizes should also be considered when examining changes in the number of background checks. For example, the seventh least populous state, Rhode Island, had the third largest decline in firearm background checks in May compared to May of last year, at nearly 12%, but this decrease was small in nominal terms, with checks declining by 245 to 1,847, or 1.7 checks per 1,000 people, in May.
Four states — Alabama, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Connecticut — joined Washington with gun background checks declining by more than 10% in May. Six of the 10 most populous states, where 54% of the population resides, experienced declines in background checks. On the flip side, here are 18 states where gun sales are still soaring.
Notably, background checks increased by 2% in California, the country’s most populous state, while checks declined by nearly 3% in Texas, the nation’s second most populated state. Of the 10 largest states by population, New York state saw the biggest decline in May, of more than 6%.
By far, Americans prefer handguns to long guns like shotguns, hunting rifles, and AR-15-style rifles. More than four out of 10 background checks in the first five months of the year were for handgun purchases. A majority of background checks in West Virginia, New York, and the Dakotas were for long guns, while in Nebraska only about one in 10 background checks were for handguns. (Also see, 10 shotguns Americans are buying the most.)
Here are the U.S. states where legal gun sales are decreasing the most.
Click here to read our detailed methodology.
Source: SeanPavonePhoto / iStock via Getty Images
20. Mississippi
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -2.1% (-334 — 16th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 15,704 — 20th fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 16,038 — 20th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 5.3 — 22nd most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 5.5 — 21st most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 2.9 million — 17th smallest
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Source: Joe Raedle / Getty Images News via Getty Images
19. Florida
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -2.1% (-2,269 — 9th smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 104,093 — 2nd most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 106,362 — 2nd most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 4.7 — 22nd fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 4.8 — 24th fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 22.2 million — 3rd largest
24/7 Wall St.Source: Rick Gershon / Getty Images News via Getty Images
18. Texas
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -2.7% (-3,244 — 2nd largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 116,465 — the most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 119,709 — the most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 3.9 — 12th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 4.0 — 14th fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 30.0 million — 2nd largest
Source: Jacob Boomsma / iStock via Getty Images
17. Alaska
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -2.9% (-182 — 12th smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 6,170 — 8th fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 6,352 — 9th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 8.4 — 5th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 8.7 — 5th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 733,583 — 3rd smallest
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Source: Sean Pavone / iStock via Getty Images
16. Indiana
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -3.1% (-1,016 — 8th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 31,255 — 20th most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 32,271 — 19th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 4.6 — 20th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 4.7 — 23rd fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 6.8 million — 17th largest
Source: AFP Contributor / AFP via Getty Images
15. Virginia
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -3.8% (-1,500 — 17th smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 38,359 — 17th most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 39,859 — 15th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 4.4 — 18th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 4.6 — 21st fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 8.7 million — 12th largest
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14. Wyoming
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -5.3% (-282 — 5th smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 5,086 — 7th fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 5,368 — 8th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 8.7 — 4th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 9.2 — 4th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 581,381 — the smallest
13. New York
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -6.3% (-1,826 — 13th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 27,302 — 22nd most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 29,128 — 21st most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 1.4 — the fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 1.5 — 3rd fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 19.7 million — 4th largest
Source: Anadolu Agency / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
12. Missouri
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -6.4% (-2,191 — 5th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 32,202 — 19th most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 34,393 — 18th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 5.2 — 25th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 5.6 — 20th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 6.2 million — 18th largest
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Source: Sean Pavone / iStock via Getty Images
11. South Carolina
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -6.4% (-1,795 — 4th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 26,348 — 23rd most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 28,143 — 22nd most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 5.0 — 24th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 5.3 — 23rd most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 5.3 million — 23rd largest
Source: Ethan Miller / Getty Images News via Getty Images
10. Montana
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -6.5% (-690 — 6th smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 9,932 — 12th fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 10,622 — 13th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 8.8 — 3rd most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 9.5 — 2nd most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 1.1 million — 8th smallest
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Source: Mike Kemp / In Pictures via Getty Images
9. North Dakota
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -7.5% (-393 — the smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 4,882 — 6th fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 5,275 — 6th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 6.3 — 14th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 6.8 — 12th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Long guns
> 2022 population: 779,261 — 4th smallest
Source: Mario Villafuerte / Getty Images News via Getty Images
8. Louisiana
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -9.3% (-1,979 — 13th largest increase)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 19,270 — 25th fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 21,249 — 24th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 4.2 — 15th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 4.6 — 22nd fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 4.6 million — 25th largest
Source: peeterv / iStock via Getty Images
7. Wisconsin
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -9.4% (-3,968 — 14th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 38,397 — 16th most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 42,365 — 11th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 6.5 — 13th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 7.2 — 8th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 5.9 million — 20th largest
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Source: peeterv / iStock via Getty Images
6. South Dakota
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -9.7% (-521 — 16th smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 4,845 — 5th fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 5,366 — 7th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 5.3 — 23rd most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 5.9 — 17th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Long guns
> 2022 population: 909,824 — 5th smallest
Source: Christopher Capozziello / Getty Images News via Getty Images
5. Connecticut
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -10.2% (-1,875 — 6th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 16,564 — 21st fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 18,439 — 25th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 4.6 — 19th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 5.1 — 25th fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 3.6 million — 22nd smallest
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4. Tennessee
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -10.4% (-6,324 — 9th largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 54,282 — 7th most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 60,606 — 6th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 7.7 — 8th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 8.6 — 6th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 7.1 million — 15th largest
Source: SeanPavonePhoto / iStock via Getty Images
3. Rhode Island
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -11.7% (-245 — 3rd smallest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 1,847 — the fewest
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 2,092 — 2nd fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 1.7 — 4th fewest
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 1.9 — 4th fewest
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 1.1 million — 7th smallest
Source: Barry Lewis / In Pictures via Getty Images
2. Alabama
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -16.7% (-8,102 — 3rd largest decrease)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 40,453 — 13th most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 48,555 — 9th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 8.0 — 7th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 9.6 — the most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 5.1 million — 24th largest
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Source: Anadolu Agency / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
1. Washington
> Change in background checks, May 2022-May 2023: -29.8% (-18,600 — 2nd largest increase)
> Firearm background checks, May 2023: 43,717 — 9th most
> Firearm background checks, May 2022: 62,317 — 5th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2023: 5.6 — 19th most
> Firearm background checks per 1,000 residents, May 2022: 8.0 — 7th most
> Most common type of firearm check, May 2023: Handguns
> 2022 population: 7.8 million — 13th largest
Methodology
To identify the states where gun sales are decreasing fastest, 24/7 Wall St. used data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System, looking at the states with the largest percentage decrease in adjusted-firearm background checks from May 2022 to 2023. To reach a more accurate approximation of gun sales, we excluded checks for such categories as pawn shop transactions, returns, rentals, and rechecks (which are conducted periodically by some states on existing permit holders).
Even after removing some types of checks that are clearly unrelated to a new firearm purchase, background checks still serve only as a rough approximation, because every state has different background checks laws and accounting practices.
The most glaring example of this is Illinois, which alone accounted for about half of the background checks in the country after excluding the aforementioned categories of checks. Illinois no longer breaks down background checks separately, but did so from July 2016 through July 2021. During the four full years of data, an average of 9.2% of Illinois’s non-private sale or gun-specific permit checks were non-rechecks. We applied that average to the most recent state figures to estimate Illinois’ count. This was done only because Illinois is such a glaring example of inconsistency and because there was historical data to produce an estimate.
There are likely other states for which the background check figures listed are inflated or underestimated proxies for gun sales.
Population data came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Unit Estimates Program, and are for July of 2022, the most recent data available.
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