Technology

Despite Keeping VMWare Stake Analysts Still See Big Upside in EMC

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After having made presentations and comments at EMC World Las Vegas, EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) has not managed to impress investors. Or, has it? It turns out that there are many positive analyst reports out about EMC, and it seems that the real weakness may be tied to the notion that the super-majority voting stake in VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) may now not be monetized any time soon. While activists have wanted more from EMC, the analysts are viewing EMC quite positively ahead.

It’s worth mentioning that these analyst calls came in the wake of EMC World in Las Vegas as well as the company’s analyst day. At EMC World, the company refreshed its product portfolio with a message positioning the company for the third generation platform of IT.

Kulbinder Garcha, Credit Suisse’s analyst on the call, noted that its earnings per share (EPS) estimates would remain unchanged, and that the firm saw scope for moderate re-acceleration in growth, driven by new products and VMware in the second half of 2015.

The brokerage firm detailed in its report:

EMC introduced the new XtremeIO software and X flash array. The company refreshed its product portfolio, with the new XtremeIO 4.0 software and the X Brick all flash array, and we believe that this should further the company’s gains and momentum in the flash market (EMC’s market share is currently about 30%+ and the business has a bookings run rate of $1 billion). The new Data Domain 9500, also released at the event this week, boasts up to 1.7 PTB of capacity, which we believe should drive a recovery in the back up segment having declined in the first quarter of 2015. Finally, the new VNX Rack improves its converged offerings for the VCE business by broadening the portfolio from appliances, blocks, and racks, and creates HDD and SDD technologies. We continue to believe that such innovation will continue to create a competitive edge for the storage business that we see gaining market share from current ~30% levels towards 35% medium-term. Our storage revenue estimates remain unchanged at $16.7 billion and $17.2 billion for fiscal years 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Credit Suisse noted that EMC is in the midst of making several meaningful investments namely: XtremeIO, ScaleIO ECS, Pivotal, airwatch, NSX, DSSD, that have yet to payoff. All of these suggest that management may intend to stay put and keep their federated structure. All of this should lead to double digit EPS growth long term.

Sterne Agee CRT’s analysts Alex Kurtz and Amelia Harris were also on the call. Now comments from the company suggest that the VMware spin-out potential is currently very low considering sales-force synergies. The CFO, Zane Rowe, highlights business tracking against the plan year-to-date and that a slightly higher back-end loaded year would not be a significant hurdle.

Considering what the CFO had said, Sterne Agee CRT believes that EMC’s management demurs on the topic of an increased buyback (currently $4B) and that the tone suggests that the company wants to maintain more capital for acquisitions but ultimately left the topic open for discussion. Chairman and CEO, Joe Tucci, and the new CFO cited leaning on operating expense reductions as a potentially quicker path to improved leverage.

Sterne Agee CRT has a $30 price target which is a 12-times multiple based on forward earnings, adjusted for net cash, as a deserved premium to NetApp (currently trading at 8x CY2016 expected earnings) given VMware upside opportunity, market share potential relative to HP and IBM and what should be recovering free cash flow growth into calendar year 2016, after normalizing for the VCE OpEx impact.

Merrill Lynch’s Wamsi Mohan was another analysts on this call. The firm reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $34. The reasoning behind Merrill Lynch’s call was that EMC’s messaging around strategy remained unchanged and the brokerage firm did not expect any significant portfolio changes in the near term. The CFO noted the company is still on track to deliver the guidance. In Merrill Lynch’s opinion, EMC/VMW hold key strategic assets around the software defined data center evolution which positions the company strongly over the coming years. At the same time, EMC announced major updates across its portfolio.

In terms of the CEO transition, Tucci noted that the board will go through due process and will consider both internal and external candidates. He noted that there were several well qualified internal candidates.

Merrill Lynch also mentioned that there was significant focus on the hyperconverged market (VxRack) with the potential to move downstream over time. EMC’s management noted all flash array solutions with XtremIO are competing well with startups like Pure Storage with significant win rates in core EMC accounts and underpenetrated EMC accounts.

Wells Fargo maintained a Market Perform rating for EMC with a valuation rating of $26 to $28. The brokerage firm explains is valuation:

Our valuation range of $26-28 is based on roughly 12-times our 2015 FCF/share estimate of $2.11 We believe key risks include the macro economy and the potential corresponding impact to IT Spend, increasing competition from moves into new market adjacencies, as well as VMware volatility. EMC’s stock has historically been sensitive to price movements in VMware’s share price. If VMware’s stock declines, EMC shares could trade lower given its ownership position.

Overall, Wells Fargo gives its investment thesis as:

While we believe EMC has the right long-term strategy to drive scale and stronger competitive position, the timing of several positive catalysts (VMW buy-in, Pivotal spin-off, strategic investments.

Tuesday afternoon, shares of EMC were down 2.6% at $26.48 on a 52-week trading range of $25.05 to $30.92. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $30.52.

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