TrimTabs Investment Research has released its March employment data showing that the United States added 187,000 jobs in March. This is above the 172,000 average of each of the prior three months, but it is less than what ADP is expected to show later this morning at 208,000 and under the 201,000 that is expected to be reported by Bloomberg in the formal non-farm payrolls from the Labor Department on Friday.
Today’s data was based upon daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. TrimTabs also noted that recent BLS employment results are likely too high because they “are plagued by high seasonal adjustments combined with an assumption that the economy is in an accelerating growth phase.”
There is more projected data as well. Wages and salaries rose 3.7% year-over-year in March, versus an average of 3.2% in January and February; but this was only 0.8% if adjusted for inflation. The Online Job Postings Index rose only 0.2% in the past week, and weekly gains slowed in the past four weeks as the projection is that some employers are pushing out hirings past Easter.
Another important observation is that TrimTabs noted that the unemployment rate is unlikely to fall much more unless initial claims drop further. Bloomberg has a consensus target of unemployment remaining flat at 8.3% for March.
JON C. OGG