ADP Data Brings Lower Expectations for Payrolls and Unemployment Friday

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We already saw a less robust outlook from TrimTabs showing that estimated job growth for March was 156,000. That was up from its 100,000 job growth February estimate, but the report shows that actual job growth is significantly weaker than the Labor Department reported in the first quarter and not enough to reduce the rate of unemployment. Now we have the ADP report coming in much weaker at 158,000, versus 192,000 projected by Dow Jones, and projected to be 205,000 in new payrolls by Bloomberg.

These are merely preliminary attempts to benchmark the payrolls reports from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. We expect that some of the official estimates will come down, now that both TrimTabs and ADP have come in softer than what is expected by Friday’s BLS report.

Bloomberg shows that the formal estimate is still 193,000 in nonfarm payrolls, but that includes government workers. The private sector payrolls are expected to have grown by 200,000, and the formal unemployment rate is expected to come in flat month-over-month at 7.7%.

TrimTabs is not as widely followed as ADP, and ADP has a very mixed history of predicting jobs reports. That being said, we now expect that the official payrolls data may be ratcheted down slightly in the next 24 hours, ahead of the formal report.

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