The Government's Recession Versus Your Recession

As if you did not notice, the US economy is in a recession.  We have been maintaining that for just about the whole of 2008.  Now today we have the official data from the National Bureau of Economic Research.  The NBER said its Business Cycle Dating Committee determined that the U.S. entered recession in December 2007.

The committee defines a recession as a significant decline in economicactivity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,normally visible in production, employment, real income and otherindicators.  We have our own take and if you would like some markethumor you can see our new revised bear market financial terms that willhopefully make for some chuckles during hard times.

The committee uses GDP reports and Gross Domestic Income estimates as aguide. Domestic production and employment are primary conceptualmeasures of economic activity.

This determination was made on Friday and then released to the publicMonday.  Everyone jokes about this "announcement" when it is made.  Bythe time they have told you this, much of the worst has already beenseen.  We still think more pain is on the way.

Jon C. Ogg
December 1, 2008