Big Drop in Import Prices

We have already seen some data on inventories, gross domestic product and the trade deficit. Now we are seeing the results for the July import prices. This came down by 0.6%, rather than the Dow Jones estimate of +0.1%. On a nonpetroleum basis these were -0.3%, as the petroleum import prices were -1.6%.

This report likely will not be anywhere near enough to move the needle on the markets. It also is not enough to send the inflation hawks on a worry mission. We would note that commodity prices have risen some since the mid-point of this data released today. That means the report may not be as reflective of the current prices as some headline watchers might expect.

This report certainly is not a report that will influence the FOMC and any decision on quantitative easing. It will be interesting to see how the uptick in energy prices and how the drought all play into the reports in the coming month.

JON C. OGG