Economy

ADP Payrolls Nails the Number

Jon C. Ogg

Published: March 30, 2016 9:35 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 11:22 am

ADP released its National Employment Report, showing that the private sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs in March. This figure was more or less in line with the consensus estimates provided by Bloomberg (203,000) and Dow Jones (200,000).

One thing that should matter here is that the ADP report is also unlikely to sway private sector payrolls and nonfarm payrolls due from the U.S. Department of Labor this Friday. ADP is frequently used as a directional indicator that can sway economist estimates on payrolls each month since it comes out two days ahead of the formal Labor Department report.

Small businesses (under 50 employees) and mid-sized business 50 to 500 jobs) led the gains, with small businesses accounting for 86,000 of the jobs added and medium-sized businesses accounting for 75,000 of them. ADP did forecast that its measurement of large businesses accounted for some 39,000 added payrolls in March.

The breakdown by industry shows just how much the United States is a services economy. Goods producing was only 9,000 of the 200,000 jobs. A by-industry snapshot is as follows:

• Construction added 17,000.
• Manufacturing added 3,000.
• Trade/transportation/utilities added 42,000.
• Financial activities added 14,000.
• Professional/business services added 28,000.

Bloomberg showed that the official unemployment report from the Labor Department is expected to remain flat at 4.9%. Bloomberg has the consensus estimates as 210,000 for the total nonfarm payrolls and 200,000 for the private sector payrolls.

Again, this ADP report is unlikely to change estimates much, or at all, for Friday’s key Labor Department report.