Investing

Earnings Previews: Academy Sports, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Xpeng

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Monday evening’s and Tuesday morning’s earnings announcements from Best Buy, Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks and Pinduoduo all beat expectations. An expected announcement from Chinese tutoring firm New Oriental Education did not materialize.

After markets close Tuesday, we will hear from three firms: Nordstrom, Intuit and Heico. Before the markets open on Wednesday, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Express are scheduled to report quarterly results.

We already have posted our look at four enterprise software companies reporting results after markets close on Wednesday: Pure Storage, Salesforce, Snowflake and Splunk.

Here is a look at four notable reports due before markets open Thursday.

Academy Sports

Sporting gear retailer Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ: ASO) has seen its share price nearly triple since its October 2020 IPO. Since late June, however, the stock is down more than 8%, likely due to the impact of added coronavirus infections. Even after the recent dip, Jim Cramer said recently that he thought the stock was “inexpensive” and that he’d “be a buyer.”

Of 10 brokerages covering the firm, nine rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. At a recent price of $38.90 and a median price target of $45, the upside potential is about 15.7%. At the high price target of $50, the upside potential is about 28.5%.

Analysts expect Academy Sports to report second-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.67 on sales of $1.35 billion. Those estimates reflect a sequential growth of 5.3% in revenue and a 25.7% drop in EPS. The revenue estimate is flat with the year-ago quarter, and the EPS estimate reflects a decline of more than 26%. For the full year, estimates call for EPS of $4.67, up nearly 22%, and revenue of $6.18 billion, up about 8.6%.

The stock trades at 7.8 times expected 2022 EPS, 8.4 times estimated 2023 earnings and 7.6 times estimated 2024 earnings. The stock’s post-IPO range is $12.05 to $42.75. Academy Sports does not pay a dividend.

Dollar General

Off-price retailer Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) has had a share price increase of more than 18% over the past 12 months, including a gain of about 11.8% so far in 2021. The pandemic-battered economy has been a boon for dollar stores, and Coresight Research expects 1,650 new stores this year to join more than 34,000 already operating in the sector. Many are clustered in low-income areas, and some cities have passed ordinances restricting where new dollar stores may be located.

Analyst sentiment is bullish on Dollar General. Of 27 brokerages covering the firm, 22 rate the shares a Buy or Strong Buy, and three more have a Hold rating on the stock. At a price of around $233.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $245 is about 5%. At the high target of $270, the implied upside is about 15.7%.

Second-quarter 2022 revenue is forecast to reach $8.59 billion, up 2.2% sequentially but down about 1% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $2.60, down 7.7% sequentially and down 17% year over year. For the full fiscal year, current estimates call for EPS of $10.25, a decline of 3.5%, on sales of $34.2 billion, up about 1.3%.

The stock trades at 22.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 20.9 times estimated 2023 earnings and 19.1 times estimated 2024 earnings. Dollar General’s 52-week range is $173.50 to $239.35, and the company pays an annual dividend of $1.68 (yield of 0.72%).


Dollar Tree

The other major off-price retailer, Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), also reports after markets close Wednesday. Over the past 12 months, the stock has added about 4%, including a drop of around 3.5% for the year to date. Issues facing Dollar Tree (and Dollar General) include many of the same ones facing all businesses recovering from the pandemic: rising costs of goods and logistics and higher wage costs. While not yet existential threats to the dollar stores, there is little doubt that earnings will suffer.

Analysts are tending more toward the bearish side on Dollar Tree, with just 10 of 27 brokerage houses rating the shares a Buy or Strong Buy and 16 giving the stock a Hold rating. At a price of around $103.40, the stock’s implied upside based on a median price target of $115 is about 11.2%. At the high price target of $130, the implied gain is 25.7%.

The consensus forecast for second-quarter 2022 revenue is $6.46 billion, down less than 1% sequentially, and up nearly 3% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.02, down 36.5% sequentially and down 7.3% year over year. For the full fiscal year, analysts are looking for EPS of $5.98, up about 5.8%, and revenue of $26.44 billion, up 3.6%.

The stock trades at 17.2 times expected 2022 EPS, 15.2 times estimated 2023 earnings and 13.3 times estimated 2024 earnings. Dollar Tree’s 52-week range is $84.41 to $120.37, and the company does not pay a dividend.

Xpeng

China-based electric vehicle maker Xpeng Inc. (NYSE: XPEV) came public last August, and the shares more than tripled in their first month of trading. As of Tuesday morning, the stock is up about 91% from its IPO price, including a year-to-date decline of almost 6%.

The company has been delivering a steadily rising number of new vehicles, but a current government crackdown on Chinese firms that list stocks on foreign exchanges has made investors wary of Chinese companies in virtually every sector. One exception is ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, who bought more shares of JD.com Monday following the company’s solid earnings reports. Last month, Wood was a seller of JD.com, Tencent and Pinduoduo. Xpeng can only hope that ARK gets interested in an EV maker other than Tesla.

Xpeng is lightly covered, but all five ratings on the stock are Buy. At a price of $40.25, the implied gain based on a median price target of $51.39 is about 27.7%. At the high target of $71.90, the upside potential is $78.6%.

Analysts expect Xpeng to report second-quarter 2021 revenue of $515.55 million, up 14.5% sequentially. The adjusted loss per share is forecast at $0.25, sharply better than the prior quarter’s per-share loss of $0.88. For the full year, the carmaker is expected to post a per-share loss of $0.61, compared with last year’s loss of $1.11 per share. Revenue is expected to reach $2.52 billion, up about 182%.

Xpeng is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock trades at a 2021 enterprise value-to-sales multiple of 11.3, a 2022 multiple of 6.4 and a 2023 multiple of 4.3. The stock’s 52-week range is $17.11 to $74.49, and the company does not pay a dividend.

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