Investing

Earnings Previews: Bank of New York Mellon, Progressive, State Street

Progressive

Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) is an insurance holding company offering personal and commercial insurance products, including auto, property and liability coverage. The stock price has risen by about 20% over the past 12 months, but the trend line is lumpy. Analysts at BofA recently named Progressive as one of its top 10 investing ideas for the third quarter, citing the company’s positioning to take advantage of consumers’ more pennywise approach to auto insurance.

Of the 19 analysts covering the stock, eight have Hold ratings and five rate the shares at Buy or Strong Buy. The median price target on the stock is $115.00, and at a recent price of around $117.85, the stock has outrun both its median and average price target. At the high target of $136.00, the potential upside to is around 15.4%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $12.49 billion, down 5.3% sequentially but up by about 8.8% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $0.93, down 8.7% sequentially and up nearly 31% year over year. For full fiscal 2022, analysts forecast EPS of $4.64, up 26.7%, on revenue of $51.04 billion, up 10.0%.

The stock trades at 25.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 19.2 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.16 and 15.7 times estimated 2024 earnings of $7.53 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $89.35 to $122.23. Progressive pays an annual dividend of $1.90 (yield of 1.61%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was nearly 23%.

State Street

State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT), like BNY, provides investment services, including exchange-traded funds under the SPDR brand. Over the past 12 months, the stock has lost about 26% of its value, with all the drop coming in a steep decline of about 41% since mid-January. The stock posted a new 52-week low Wednesday morning. The company has boosted its dividend for 12 consecutive years and could be prepared to do so again if it wants to keep its string alive.

Of 17 analysts covering the stock, eight have a Hold rating and the other nine rate the stock at Buy or a Strong Buy. The median price target on the stock is $80.00, and shares traded Wednesday at around $60.60, implying an upside of around 32%. At the high target of $115, the upside potential is almost 90%.


Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $2.99 billion, down 3% sequentially and by about 1.3% year over year. Adjusted EPS are expected to reach $1.74, up 9.6% sequentially but 11.7% lower year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, the forecast for EPS is $7.32, down 1.7%, on revenue of $12.61 billion, up about 4.8%.

The stock trades at 8.3 times expected 2022 EPS, 6.8 times estimated 2023 earnings of $7.32 and 6.5 times estimated 2024 earnings of $9.32 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $60.18 to $104.87. State Street pays an annual dividend of $2.28 (yield of 3.64%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 25%.

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