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Earnings Previews: Barrick Gold, Datadog, Li Auto, UPS

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After U.S. markets closed on Thursday, Apple beat consensus estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, but revenue dipped by 1.4% year over year, the third consecutive quarter to see an annual dip in sales. Despite that, the company said that its installed base of iPhones and other devices reached an all-time high. For Apple’s fourth quarter ending in September, the company guided revenue down again year over year, while iPhone and services revenue will rise. In late morning action, shares traded down 2.8%.

Amazon hammered EPS forecasts by about 85%, and revenue beat the forecast by 2.2% and rose nearly 11% year over year. Revenue at the company’s cloud-computing division, AWS, nearly doubled compared to last year. Shares traded up 11.2%.

Airbnb also beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 18.1% year over year. The company issued in-line EPS guidance for the current quarter and said it expects full-year adjusted EBITDA margin to be somewhat higher than in 2022. The stock traded up 1.4%.

Block beat Wall Street’s top-line and bottom-line estimates on the strength of its Cash App business. Net revenue was up 26% year over year, but the outlook for adjusted EBITDA disappointed investors. Shares traded down about 12.2%.

Coinbase Global also topped estimated EPS and revenue totals, but revenue fell by more than 12% year over year. That likely is due to an SEC lawsuit filed in June alleging that the company is trading unregistered securities (crypto tokens). Shares traded essentially flat.

Livent beat the consensus EPS estimate by 8.5% but missed on revenue, even though revenue rose by nearly 8% year over year. The company reiterated fiscal year revenue guidance in a range of $1.025 billion to $1.125 billion. Shares traded up 3.8%.

No notable reports are due out Friday afternoon or Monday morning. Lucid, Palantir and Paramount Global are on deck to report quarterly results after U.S. markets close Monday.

Here is a preview of what to expect from four companies scheduled to report earnings before U.S. markets open on Tuesday.

Barrick Gold

Over the past 12 months, the price of gold has risen by about 9.6%. Canada-based Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: GOLD) has seen its share price improve by around 8.7% over the same period. For the second quarter of the year, spot gold prices improved by about 4.5%. Year over year, demand from the spot market was up 44%, while demand from central banks fell by 35% and demand by the jewelry industry rose slightly. Jewelry accounts for just over half of global demand for the yellow metal.
Analysts’ enthusiasm rose slightly in the quarter, with 19 of 26 brokerages having a Buy or Strong Buy rating while the rest have Hold ratings.  At a recent price of around $16.50 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of about $22.00 is 15.9%. At the high price target of around $25.50, the upside potential is 21.2%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $2.93 billion, which would be up 11% sequentially and up 2.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.17, up 21.4% sequentially but down 29.1% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, estimates call for EPS of $0.88, up 17%, on sales of $12.09 billion, up 9.8%.

Barrick stock trades at 118.8 times expected 2023 earnings, 14.5 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.13 and 14.0 times estimated 2025 earnings of $1.17 per share. Its 52-week trading range is $13.01 to $20.75. Barrick pays an annual dividend of $0.40 (yield of 2.42%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 11.94%.

Datadog

Shares of data monitoring and analytics platform Datadog Inc. (NASDAQ: DDOG) are down by about 2% over the past 12 months, thanks to a gain of nearly 50% since the beginning of the year. After reporting first-quarter earnings in early May, the stock soared by almost 80%. And that increase has little to do with Datadog’s AI promises. Those did not begin until Thursday when the company announced a stream of generative AI products.

Analysts remain strongly bullish on the stock, with 27 of 37 giving Datadog a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the rest rating the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $111.00, the stock trades above its median price target of $101.95. At the high price target of $140.00, the upside potential is 27.3%.

For the fiscal second quarter, Datadog is expected to post revenue of $501.32 million, up 4.1% sequentially and 23.4% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $0.28, flat sequentially and up 16.7% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, the company is expected to report EPS of $1.48, up 20%, on sales of $2.09 billion, up 25%.

Datadog stock trades at 94.1 times expected 2022 earnings, 74.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.48 and 57.3 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.93 per share. The 52-week trading range is $61.34 to $120.75. The company does not pay a dividend, and the total shareholder return for the past year was 1.57%.

Li Auto

Beijing-based electric vehicle (EV) maker Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) has seen its share price increase by more than 34% over the past 12 months. Shares have gained more than 120% since the beginning of 2023. In July, Li delivered more cars than either Nio or Xpeng, with more than 34,000 new vehicles hitting the road. BYD, China’s largest EV maker, delivered more than 262,000 new vehicles in July. Tesla sales dropped 30% in China last month to 64,285. The government extended consumer tax breaks for buyers of new EVs.
Of 25 brokerages covering Li Auto, 23 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $45.80, the stock trades above its median price target of $43.00. At the high price target of $61.00, the upside potential is around 33.2%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $3.8 billion, up 39% sequentially and 192% higher year over year. Analysts have forecast EPS of $0.19, flat sequentially and up from a loss per share of $0.18 in the year-ago quarter. For the 2023 fiscal year, estimates call for EPS of $0.69, up from EPS of $0.01 in 2022, on sales of $14.84 billion, up about 126%.

Li Auto’s stock trades at 66.7 times expected 2023 earnings, 40.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of 1.13 and 27.8 times estimated 2025 earnings of $1.66 per share. The 52-week range is $12.52 to $46.81 a share, and the company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return in the past year is 34.27%.

UPS

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) stock has dropped by nearly 6% over the past 12 months, including an increase of 4.6% so far in 2023. The company’s recent contract settlement with its 340,000 Teamsters removed a big overhang on the stock, but revenue needs to reverse its direction, and earnings per share have to turn north again as well. Investors will want to hear how the company plans to achieve these goals.

Analysts remain somewhat bullish on the stock, with 15 of 32 having a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 15 others rating it at Hold. At a share price of around $182.00, the implied upside based on a median price target of $195.00 is 7.1%. At the high price target of $230.00, the upside potential is 26.4%.


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