America's Fastest Shrinking Big Cities

Population and Social Characteristics

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Published: March 21, 2024 9:50 am

The U.S. population has been growing at a historically slow pace in the past decade. It was the slowest in 2021, at a 0.2% increase, and only recovered slightly in 2022, with a 0.4% uptick. Because of this slow pace, the Census projects the population will begin to decline some time in the next 20 to 50 years except in its high-immigration scenario. Already, the populations of some large cities are shrinking.

To determine the fastest shrinking large cities, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed population data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey 1-year estimates. We listed all 43 metropolitan statistical areas with at least a 3% population decline from 2017 to 2022 in order of smallest to largest decline. Supplemental data on employment in December 2017 and December 2022 as well as unemployment rates came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and are seasonally-adjusted figures. Home value data came from the ACS.

While the nation’s population rose by 3.5% from 2017 to 2022, the populations of the cities on the list dropped anywhere from 3% to over 22%. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, considering the job opportunities in the Silicon Valley metro, the list begins with the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metro area. Employment in the metro, however, has grown over that time. It could be people are moving out due to the high cost of housing, which remains the most expensive nationwide.

Other very large cities on the list include the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York metro areas, which respectively have the second, seventh, and 23rd highest home values of the metros considered. (Also see: States That Will Grow the Most by 2040.)

In the top five cities on the list, the population shrank by over 10% from 2017 to 2022 with the Kalamazoo-Portage metro area in Michigan losing over a fifth of its residents. The four Midwest cities and one Southern city also have considerably lower home values than the national median home value in 2022 of $320,900.

43. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

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2017-2022 population change: -3.00% (-59,939)
2022 population: 1,938,524 — #36 highest out of 387
2017 population: 1,998,463 — #35 highest out of 387
2017-2022 employment change: +2.2% — #186 largest increase out of 257
Unemployment rate, Dec 2022: 2.6% — compared to 3.5% national
2018-2022 median home value change: 30.4% — compared to 39.7% nationwide
Median home value, 2022: $1,422,600 — #1 highest out of 387

42. Victoria, TX

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2017-2022 population change: -3.06% (-3,068)
2022 population: 97,160 — #360 highest out of 387
2017 population: 100,228 — #352 highest out of 387
2017-2022 employment change: -2.0% — #69 largest decrease out of 115
Unemployment rate, Dec 2022: 3.9% — compared to 3.5% national
2018-2022 median home value change: 39.4% — compared to 39.7% nationwide
Median home value, 2022: $203,800 — #263 highest out of 387

41. Greenville, NC

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