2020 Trump vs. Democratic Contenders in AK and WA

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, who would you vote for?

	% Alaska	% Washington
Republican Donald Trump	45	31
Democrat Joe Biden	40	52
Not sure	15	17

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, who would you vote for?

	% Alaska	% Washington
Republican Donald Trump	45	32
Democrat Bernie Sanders	38	54
Not sure	17	14

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, who would you vote for?

	% Alaska	% Washington
Republican Donald Trump	48	33
Democrat Kamala Harris	30	47
Not sure	23	20

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?

	% Alaska	% Washington
Republican Donald Trump	48	33
Democrat Elizabeth Warren	32	48
Not sure	20	20

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Pete Buttigieg, who would you vote for?

	% Alaska	% Washington
Republican Donald Trump	45	32
Democrat Pete Buttigieg	31	44
Not sure	24	24

Former vice president, Joe Biden, is within the margin of error in a head to head race with Trump in Alaska (Trump leads 45% to 40%). Biden does well with Millennials (45% to 33%, Biden wins) and women (45% to 38%, Biden wins). Trump does best with voters over the of age 50, men and voters whose household income is over $50K, while Biden wins with voters whose household income is under $35K. Among Independents, the race was very close, Trump edges out Biden 39% to 36%.

In the state of Washington, voters decidedly favored Biden with more than half of their support to Trump’s third of support. This was true amongst all sub-groups surveyed.  

When we match Trump and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the race followed a similar pattern as with Joe Biden as the nominee. Sanders beat Trump convincingly among women (45% to 37%, Sanders wins) Millennials (55% to 33%, Sanders wins), Generation Z voters (51% to 36%, Sanders wins), and voters whose household income is less than $50K, while Trump wins with his base of men (56% to 28%, Trump wins), Independents (39% to 36%, Trump wins), voters over the age of 50, and those whose household income is more than $50K. In a head to head match-up in Washington, Sanders beat Trump convincingly by 22 percentage points, 54% to 32%.

In Alaska, Trump does well against, California Senator, Kamala Harris (D-CA). He wins 48% to 30%, while 23% are not sure. Unlike her rivals, Biden and Sanders, Harris does not make in-roads with two important Democratic groups—women (Both Trump and Harris are tied at 38%) and Millennials (Trump leads 37% to 33%). She also does not strike a chord with Independents (Trump leads 42% to 28%) as well as Alaskan voters whose household income is less than $50K annually. The story is much different in Washington as she defeats Trump 47% to 33%, but receives less than 50%, unlike her closest rivals Biden and Sanders. 

When it came to how Alaskan voters were going to vote in the 2020 presidential general election, President Trump handily defeats Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (Trump wins 48% to 32%) and South Bend Indiana Mayor, Pete Buttigieg (45% to 31%).  Both Warren and Buttigieg have the same problem as Harris in that they do not connect with women, Millennials and Independents the way Biden and Sanders do. On the other hand, both Warren and Buttigieg, win by at least double digits against Trump in the “blue” state of Washington, 48% to 33% and 44% to 32%, respectively.