Trump is also in a tight race against Sen. Kamala Harris (D-California). The president wins 44% to 42%, while 14% are not sure. Similar to her rivals, Biden and Sanders, Harris does make in-roads with two important Democratic groups — millennials aged 18-29 (Harris leads 51% to 32%) and Generation Z voters aged 18-24 (Harris leads 56% to 26%). Harris does well with Hispanics (Harris leads 58% to 34%) and suburban women (Harris leads 46% to 37%). Interestingly, the race between Trump and Harris does tighten up among women (Harris leads Trump 42% to 39%).

Kamala Harris does not strike a chord with independents (Trump leads 41% to 35%). Trump also wins with his base of men (Trump leads 50% to 41%), older voters, weekly Amazon (Trump leads 51% to 43%) and Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 49% to 40%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 60% to 32%), and union voters (Trump leads 53% to 37%). The president also fares well with small-city voters (Trump leads 46% to 40%), and suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 40%).

As for region, both Trump and Harris are tied in the East, while Trump wins in the South (Trump leads 47% to 40%) and Central/Great Lakes (Trump leads 48% to 38%), and Harris wins the West (Harris leads 49% to 36%).

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?	% US
Republican Donald Trump	45
Democrat Elizabeth Warren	43
Not sure	13

 

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Pete Buttigieg, who would you vote for?	% US
Republican Donald Trump	45
Democrat Pete Buttigieg	42
Not sure	14

When it came to how likely voters were going to vote in the 2020 presidential election, President Trump narrowly defeats Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) (Trump wins 45% to 43%) and South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (45% to 42%). Both Warren and Buttigieg connect with women, millennials and Generation Z voters, but not the way frontrunners Biden and Sanders do.

Both Warren and Buttigieg poll fewer than 50% with women; Warren receives less than 50% with millennials and Generation Z voters, while Buttigieg does receive a majority support among millennial and Generation Z voters when he is up against Trump.

On the other hand, both Warren and Buttigieg do chip away at support among two groups the president has improved among, mainly independents and urban men. Warren closes the gap with independents (Trump leads 41% to 36% and 24% not sure) when matched against Trump, and is statistically tied with Trump among urban men (Trump leads 46% to 45%). “Mayor Pete” does not fare so well with Independents (Trump leads 42% to 34%), but narrowly defeated Trump among urban men (Buttigieg wins 46% to 45%).