Munster: Look which iPhones disappeared first

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Pre-orders for the Xs series began at 3 a.m. Eastern Friday. The team from Loup Ventures was up all night with a stop watch.


From a note to subscribers posted Friday by Gene Munster:

Compared to the iPhone X launch last year, this year’s iPhone Xs lead times were, on average, 68% shorter, and the Xs Max lead times were 43% shorter.

Put a different way, for every minute after 3:00 AM you waited to order an iPhone Xs, it cost you 3.2 hours in delayed delivery. For every minute you waited to order the Xs Max, it cost you 5.8 hours. Last year, for every minute you waited to order the X, it cost you 10.1 hours…

Reflecting on lead times is not a science, given we don’t know how many phones Apple is able to produce. That said, over the years, longer lead times have historically been an indicator of healthy demand and shorter lead times softer demand (e.g. iPhone 8 and 5C).

Based on which units ran out first, hard-core early adopters were going for bigger screens (Max over Xs) and larger capacities (512 and 256 over 64).

  1. Gone in 1 minute: iPhone Xs Max Space Gray 512GB
  2. Gone in 20 minutes: iPhone Xs Max Silver 256GB
  3. Gone in 40 minutes: iPhone Xs Space Gray 256 GB

My take (and Munster’s): Pre-orders are slower than last year because this year it’s the iPhone Xr, coming in October, that will be flying off the shelves.

Below: Munster’s spreadsheets. Click to enlarge.

iPhone Xs pre-ordersiPhone Xs pre-orders

From last year:

iPhone Xs pre-orders