The 2015-2016 winter season is shaping up to be among the wettest ever along the west coast of the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released updated forecasts on Thursday indicating warmer than normal temperatures in the northwestern United States and above normal precipitation in southern California through the southwestern U.S. and over Texas from October through April and May.

The El Niño weather pattern that is forming in the Pacific Ocean indicates that associated temperature and precipitation effects are expected to be minimal for the remainder of the summer and increase in the late fall and winter. NOAA forecasters also say that the El Niño is likely to contribute to a below-normal Atlantic Ocean hurricane season this year and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The El Niño pattern is expected to last in the spring of next year in the Northern Hemisphere and, according to NOAA, “[A]ll multi-model averages predict a strong [El Niño] event at its peak in late fall/early winter.”

A typical El Niño pattern results in an exceptionally stormy winter and increased precipitation across California and the southern United States and less stormy conditions across the northern part of the country. There is also an enhanced flow of marine air into western North America, along with a reduced northerly flow of cold air from Canada to the United States. These conditions result in a milder than normal winter across the northern states and western Canada.

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The following diagram shows the most recent precipitation forecast for the three months of December 2015 and January and February of 2016.

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