Ned Davis Research has keyed in on Europe, joining in the long line of economic outlooks for 2013. The news is good for those who want some resolution and recovery in Europe. It is not good in the sense that 2013 is going to be a very slow year either way.
The firm’s economic modelling is now projecting 0.2% real GDP growth in 2013 for Europe. That might not sound like much, but the IMF forecast is -0.2% real GDP growth and the World Bank is at -0.1% for real GDP growth in 2012. The European Central Bank has its forecast at 0.3% contraction for the year.
What Ned Davis’ team is really saying is that a moderate recession will continue in Europe through the first half of 2013. The firm said that weakness in the periphery will be offset by relative strength in the core. Many of the broad macro indicators such as the EuroCOIN and their Economic Timing Model are showing stabilization, but they also continue to be at recessionary levels.
The firm further said that improvements in sentiment surveys from Germany, such suggest that the Eurozone’s largest economy saw the worst of its downturn in the fourth quarter of 2012. The lack of fiscal stimulus is expected to provide little hope or reason to expect growth in the first half of 2013.
In the end this is a report that says, “Not good, but less bad than others.”