The electric pickup market is Ford’s to lose, at least in the United States. Its F-150 pickup has been the top-selling vehicle in America for four decades. The number of these still on the road has to stretch into the millions. It is an extraordinary base into which Ford can sell an electric version. It is a classic example of how to leverage brand loyalty. But the Lightning has competition from Ram, one of the other two large American pickup brands. (Click here for the most fuel-efficient new trucks this year.)
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Ram launched the Ram 1500 REV during the Super Bowl. Ford should be happy about one aspect of the launch. Consumers cannot have a Ram 1500 REV until the fourth quarter of 2024. The pads Ford’s lead.
What happens next? First, Ford has to take every inch of market share it can over the next years. It has two challenges. The first is that Ford management cannot figure out how much it costs to build their electric vehicles (EVs). They have missed the mark before. Ford is so good at guessing these costs that it has raised F-150 Lightning prices three times. Car and Driver reports, “According to a statement from a Ford representative to Car and Driver, the price increase is a standard business practice due to rising material costs, market factors, and ongoing supply-chain constraints.” Weak.
Ford also faces an industrywide EV price war. Tesla has started it with cars. It is too early to say whether this will spread aggressively to trucks. Ford already has had to drop the price of its Mustang Mach-E. So, Ford could be unable to price the Lightning as high as it needs to in a period of peer price pressure.
Ford’s second problem is its battered reputation for quality. It is a problem management has said will take years to fix. The EV buyer universe is a largely unknown group because the sector is not large enough to measure ongoing habits and preferences. However, no one likes poorly built products.
Ford might have a full-sized electric pickup lead for now. The hard part will be to keep it as the market gets crowded.
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