Another Unemployment Disappointment, ADP Down

The consensus estimate among economists is that the BLS will say that the US added 140,000 net new jobs in March. That could bring the unemployment rate down by a tenth of a percent. Most experts expect some of that to come from jobs added by the federal government to handle the Census.

The private sector employment picture was clouded by the ADP numbers, which are often a precursor of the BLS figures. ADP today said that the economy gave up 23,000 jobs that month compared to analyst expectations of a 40,000 job addition.

The news complicates both the economic and political situation especially if it is confirmed by Labor Department numbers. The President and Congress are prepared to put in place two programs to help the economy add jobs, the most promising of them provides tax credits to employers. This Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment (HIRE) legislation was signed into law on March 18 after it was approved by the Senate 68 to 29. The total cost of the program to tax payers will be $17.6 billion.

The Congress is also struggling with the cost of extending unemployment insurance and medical benefits for the unemployed, a huge expense during a time that the demand for deficit reduction is growing louder.

Analysts will back out the number of people that the federal government hires for the Census to get a “real” look at how the jobless situation was for March. If the ADP numbers are a canary in the coal mine, the economy, at least at the level of the individual worker, has not turned around.

Douglas A. McIntyre