More DJIA Component Earnings On Deck (AXP, MSFT, HON)

We have compiled data using Thomson Reuters consensus data and added in color on options expectations, analyst calls, and technical analysis where appropriate. We have also included share performance from June 30, and then  provided performance since the March 9 close that traders are using as the official date of the end of the death spiral in the financial markets.

Options traders appear to be handicapping a move of up to $1.50 $1.60 in either direction for the American Express earnings.  Shares have been using $36.00+ as resistance in recent trading.  It turns out that the average analyst price target is also right around current prices, and the only recent solid analyst change was from FBR Capital with an upgrade to “Market Perform.”

Options traders appear to be handicapping a move of up to a range of $1.10 to $1.15 in either direction for Mr. Softy’s earnings. Whiles shares were higher than this all week, the prior resistance level had been right around $26.25. We’d also note that $27 to $28 is where most of the average analyst price targets come into play.  A key issue to consider here is that the company has already given some of the expectations for the release of Windows 7.  For this stock to hold its recent gains, a logical expectation would seem to be that the company has to echo the return of demand from PC makers and that we have seen from the chip and processor giants.

Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) is a former-DJIA component, but many traders and investors think this one should have never been removed as a DJIA component.  It never blew up as bad as G.E. as it also does not have anywhere near as broad of a finance unit.  Honeywell was once a long-ago buyout target of G.E., but that buyout was blocked by the European Union in 2001.  As Honeywell is a conglomerate, we might watch transport and aerospace comments, but it is hard to pin any single metric here considering that the company has already given some commentary on the aerospace front in the last week or so.  Shares are up about 21% since June 30 and are up about 65% since the March 9 close.  Estimates are $0.72 EPS and $7.88 billion in revenues, and the estimates for Q4 are $0.91 EPS and $8.44 billion in revenues.  As this is no longer a DJIA component, we’ll stop there.

Jon C. Ogg
October 22, 2009