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Earnings Previews: Affirm, Aurora Cannabis, Cloudflare, Zillow

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Markets closed higher on Tuesday, primarily due to some buying action in the final hour of trading. Of the results we had previewed, Enphase, Globalfoundries and Chipotle beat estimates and got a boost in early trading Wednesday. Lyft also beat estimates but issued downside guidance, and the stock traded lower.

Among companies we previewed that reported results Wednesday morning, uranium miner Cameco and pot grower Canopy Growth beat estimates and traded higher, while CVS Health, which also beat top-line and bottom-line estimates, traded lower due to lower operating cash flow guidance.

On Tuesday we previewed four companies set to report results after markets close Wednesday: Disney, Fox, MGM Resorts and Uber. We also looked at four firms set to report results before markets open on Thursday: ArcelorMittal, Coca-Cola, Peabody Energy and Twitter.

Here is a look at four firms scheduled to report results after Thursday’s closing bell.

Affirm

Since posting an annual high in early November, shares of payment processor Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) have dropped by around 60%. In January alone, the stock dropped 36%. The buy now, pay later firm had no specific news that would account for the decline, but the promise of higher interest rates and, perhaps, more inflation has caused investors to take a closer look at what the future holds. Most of Affirm’s expected performance already has been priced in, and cloudy near-term prospects are making investors cautious.

Of 14 analysts covering the stock, eight have given the shares a Buy or Strong Buy rating, and the rest rate the stock at Hold. At a recent share price of around $68.00, the implied gain based on a median price target of $105 is 54.4%. Based on the high price target of $220, the upside potential for the stock is about 224%.

Analysts expect Affirm to report fiscal first-quarter revenue of $333.07 million, up about 23.6% sequentially and 63.2% higher year over year. They also expect the company to report an adjusted loss per share of $0.22, much better than the prior quarter loss of $1.13 per share. For the full 2022 fiscal year, Affirm is currently expected to post a loss per share of $1.22, smaller than last year’s loss of $2.59 per share, on revenue of $1.28 billion, up 46.7%.


Affirm is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 15.0 in 2022. Based on estimated sales of $1.8 billion and $2.65 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, the multiple is 10.6 for the former and 7.2 for the latter. The stock’s 52-week range is $46.50 to $176.65. Affirm does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 50.2%.

Aurora Cannabis

Shares of Canada-based pot grower Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NYSE: ACB) posted their 52-week high almost exactly one year ago. Since then, the shares have dropped 78%. The company, and all the other cannabis-related firms large and small, got some good news last week when the U.S. House included approval of allowing cannabis firms to use U.S. banks. Unfortunately, the Senate version does not include the banking regulation.

Cannabis growers are waiting for the United States to remove marijuana from its list of dangerous drugs. Until that happens, Aurora and the rest just have to continue breathing.

Of 15 analysts covering the stock, nine have Hold ratings and just one rates the stock a Strong Buy, with no Buy ratings and five Sell or Strong Sell ratings. At a share price of around $4.42, the implied gain based on a median price target of $6.87 is 55.4%. Based on the high price target of $8.95, the upside potential for the stock is about 102.5%.

Analysts expect Aurora to report fiscal second-quarter revenue of $47.16 million, down by about 0.6% sequentially and by 11.3% year over year. The company is expected to report an adjusted loss per share of $0.17, compared to the prior quarter loss of $0.19 per share and the year-ago loss per share of $0.28. For the full 2022 fiscal year, Aurora is currently expected to post a loss per share of $0.47, smaller than last year’s loss of $1.24 per share, on revenue of $199.61 million, up less than 1%.

Aurora is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 4.5 in 2022. Based on estimated sales of $231.82 million in 2023 and $266.87 million in 2024, the multiples are 3.9 and 3.4, respectively. The stock’s 52-week range is $3.71 to $18.98. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 71.5%.

Cloudflare

Over the past 12 months, shares of Cloudflare Inc. (NYSE: NET) have added 22.7%, including a drop of 48% since posting a 52-week high in mid-November. Like many growth companies that continue to burn cash, Cloudflare had no specific news that would explain the drop. One might conclude that the cost of capital and other macroeconomic-related pressures simply outweigh whatever prospects Cloudflare has for growth. The company’s outlook statement will have to try to clear this up.
Of 18 brokerages covering the company, 10 have a Hold rating and 12 have ratings of Buy or Strong Buy. At a share price of around $111.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $144 is 29.3%. At the high price target of $250, the upside potential is 124%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $184.87 million, up 7.3% sequentially and 46.8% year over year. Analysts expect the company to post a break-even quarter, compared to a loss of $0.02 in the prior quarter and $0.02 in the year-ago quarter. For the full year, Cloudflare is expected to report a loss per share of $0.05, better than the year-ago loss of $0.12, on sales of $647.66 million, up 50.3%.

The stock’s enterprise value to sales ratio for the 2021 fiscal year is 54.9. That drops to 39.9 in 2022 and 29.9 in 2024. The stock’s 52-week range is $60.96 to $221.64. Cloudflare does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was 20.4%.

Zillow

Shares of online real estate brokerage Zillow Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ZG) have fallen by about 71% over the past 12 months. From a high posted on February 16 of last year, they are down more than 76%.

The demise of Zillow’s buying program, which ended up paying too much for homes, has weighed on the stock, and a Bloomberg report last month on how Zillow flipped the homes to big outfits like KKR, Cerberus and Blackstone did not burnish the company’s reputation either. Zillow has to outline a way out of its self-inflicted woes or investors are going to administer more punishment.

Of 22 brokerages covering the company, 12 have a Hold rating and eight rate the shares at Buy or Strong Buy. At a share price of around $48.15, the upside potential based on a median price target of $75 is 55.8%. At the high price target of $125, the upside potential is 160%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $3.25 billion, up 87.4% sequentially and 313% year over year. Analysts expect the company to post a loss per share of $1.10 for the quarter, compared to a loss of $0.95 in the prior quarter and a profit of $0.41 per share in the year-ago quarter. For the full year, Zillow is expected to report a loss per share of $1.19, compared to last year’s profit of $0.44 per share, on sales of $7.51 billion, up nearly 125%.

The stock’s enterprise value to sales ratio for the 2021 fiscal year is 1.9. That rises to 2.1 in 2022 and 5.2 in 2024. The stock’s 52-week range is $44.08 to $212.40. Zillow does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 72.2%.

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