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Earnings Previews: AMC, Lyft, Marathon Digital, Rivian, Upstart

Rivian electric vehicle
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Before U.S. markets opened on Monday, Tyson Foods posted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue that both missed consensus estimates. The company reported impairment charges totaling $448 million for the quarter. Tyson also maintained its fiscal year revenue guidance slightly below the Wall Street estimates. Shares traded down 9.2% shortly after Monday’s opening bell.

Lucid, Palantir and Paramount Global will report quarterly results after markets close on Monday. First thing Tuesday morning, Barrick Gold, Datadog, Li Auto and UPS are on deck to share their latest results.

Here is a look at what analysts expect to hear from these five companies due to report quarterly earnings after Tuesday’s closing bell.

AMC Entertainment

Though shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC) have added more than 20% to their price so far this year, the stock trades down nearly 75% over the past 12 months. Its 52-week high was posted on August 8, 2022.

AMC thought it had worked around a shareholder refusal to issue more shares after reaching a settlement with those shareholders who had filed suit to stop the increase. Last month, a Delaware judge ruled that the settlement could not go forward. With just under $500 million in cash and long-term debt of nearly $4.9 billion, and net debt of $9.15 billion, even Barbie cannot help much.

Since reporting fourth-quarter earnings in February, AMC has doubled its analyst coverage. Eight brokerages now cover the stock, and none has a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Only three have rated the shares at Hold. At a recent price of around $5.00 a share, the stock trades nearly three times higher than its median price target of $1.82. Shares also trade above the high target of $4.50.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.29 billion, which would be up 34.8% sequentially and by 10.3% year over year. Analysts expect AMC to report a loss per share in the quarter of $0.04, better than the prior quarter’s loss of $ 0.17 per share and also better than last year’s quarterly loss of $0.20 per share. For the full 2023 fiscal year, AMC is expected to post a loss per share of $0.38, compared with last year’s loss of $0.69 per share. Revenue is forecast to rise by 15.7% to $4.52 billion.

AMC is not expected to post a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 3.0 in 2023. Based on average estimated sales of $4.76 billion and $4.95 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, the multiples are 2.8 for 2024 and 2.7 for 2025. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $3.77 to $27.50. Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 56.99%.

Lyft

Ride-hailing operator Lyft Inc. (NASDAQ: LYFT) has suffered a share price decline of more than 37% over the past year. Rival Uber has meanwhile added nearly 42% to its share price, including a share price drop of nearly 15% last week after reporting quarterly results and noting that Lyft had begun competing effectively on pricing. Lyft’s stock took a 5% hit on its competitor’s report. How Lyft will turn profitable is a question investors will want to hear an answer for Tuesday afternoon.
The 43 analysts covering Lyft have cooled to its prospects, with 11 having a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 31 assigning a Hold rating. At a share price of around $11.00, the stock trades right at its median price target. At the high target of $32.00, the upside potential is 191%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.02 billion, up 2.2% sequentially and 2.9% higher year over year. The company is expected to report an adjusted loss of $0.01 per share, compared to EPS of $0.07 in the prior quarter and EPS of $0.13 a year ago. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts anticipate EPS of $0.19, solidly better than last year’s loss per share of $1.50, on sales of $4.29 billion, up 4.8%.

Lyft stock trades at 55.9 times expected 2023 EPS, 23.0 times estimated 2024 EPS of $0.47 and 13.5 times estimated 2025 earnings of $0.81 per share. Its 52-week range is $7.85 to $21.52. Lyft does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 37.61%.

Marathon Digital

Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) has soared by more than 360% so far in 2023, but that amounts to a gain of just 18% over the past 12 months. Bitcoin prices are up about 29% over the 12 months.

Marathon is the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner that mines for its own bank account rather than mining for customers. The company’s hash rate (a measure of how many instructions its mining machines can run) in July reached 18.8 exahashes per second. That is nearly 19 quintillion instructions per second. Last week, the company said it produced 1,176 Bitcoin in July, up 20% sequentially and up more than 1,500% year over year.

Just six analysts cover the stock, with half having a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the other half with Hold ratings. At a share price of around $16.00, the stock trades right above its median price target of $15. At the high target of $21.00, the upside potential is 31.3%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $89.25 million, up almost 75% sequentially and by 258% year over year. The company is expected to report an adjusted loss of $0.08 per share, compared to a loss per share of $0.04 in the prior quarter and a loss of $2.23 per share in the year-ago quarter. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts project a loss per share of $0.02, much better than last year’s loss per share of $1.75, on revenue of $413.6 million, up 251.2%.

The stock trades at 22.8 times estimated 2024 EPS of $0.69 per share. The 52-week trading range is $3.11 to $19.88. The company does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 17.96%.

Rivian

Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) have virtually doubled in the past three months but remain down by 30% year over year. The company announced in June that it would adopt the Tesla North American Charging Standard, giving owners of Rivian’s R1T electric pickup and its coming R1S SUV access to Tesla’s U.S. network of more than 12,000 charging stations. Production and deliveries also rose sharply in the June quarter, and the company said it is on track to deliver 50,000 EVs this year.

Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 14 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and nine have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $25.25, the upside potential based on a median price target of $27.00 is 6.9%. At the high target of $40.00, the upside potential is about 58%.

Analysts expect Rivian to report first-quarter sales of $1 billion, up 51.6% sequentially and up from $364 million in the year-ago quarter. The company is expected to post an adjusted loss per share of $1.39, compared to a prior quarter loss of $1.25 and a year-ago loss per share of $1.62. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss per share of $5.30 compared to a prior-year loss of $6.34 per share. Sales are forecast to reach $4.13 billion, up about 150%.

Rivian is not expected to post a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025.  The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 3.8 in 2023. Based on average estimated sales of $9.02 billion and $11.39 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, the multiples are 2.0 for 2024 and 1.4 for 2025. The 52-week trading range is $11.68 to $40.86. Rivian does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return for the last year was negative 30.18%.

Upstart

Consumer lending platform Upstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) has seen its share price soar by nearly 115% over the past 12 months, including a gain of an eye-watering 359% so far in 2023. What a difference AI makes. That and a short squeeze in July that forced many short sellers to cover their losing bets. Upstart’s lending platform already uses AI to make and service consumer and auto loans, and investors are going to be listening closely to the company’s outlook comments.

Of 15 analysts covering the stock, just one has a rating of Buy, and only five have Hold ratings. At a price of around $61.00, the shares trade far above the median price target of $15.00. At the high target of $72.00, the implied gain is about 18%.


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