In recent weeks, Donald Trump, the likely Republican candidate in the 2024 general election, has been pulling away from President Joe Biden in the polls. The latest survey data from public opinion research company Morning Consult shows that 45% of Americans would vote for Trump if the election were today, compared to 41% who would vote for Biden. As recently as early January, polling had Trump and Biden in a dead heat. (Here is a look at Biden’s approval rating in every state.)
Of course, the election is months away — and based on historical patterns, swings in voter sentiment are a virtual certainty between now and November. It is also important to note that national polls, while a useful gauge of the candidates’ popularity, fail to capture meaningful nuances related to geography and the electoral college, as well as voters’ assessments of leadership on key policy issues.
While Trump currently leads the president in national polls, more Americans appear to trust Biden to handle a majority of the most important issues facing the country.
Using survey data from Morning Consult, 24/7 Wall St. identified which candidate more Americans trust to manage specific issues. Issues are listed in alphabetical order.
Among the 16 policy issues included in the survey, Biden has an edge in seven, leading Trump by anywhere from 4 to 20 percentage points. Meanwhile, more Americans trust Trump in six policy areas, and generally by smaller margins, ranging from 2 percentage points to 10. In two key issues — energy, and protecting U.S. democracy — the candidates are trusted by an equal share of voters.
Although more Americans trust Biden with most issues, not all issues on this list are equally important to voters. According to a separate Morning Consult poll, the economy is top of mind for 73% of American adults, more than any other issue. In this policy area, Trump has a decisive 9 percentage point advantage over Biden. The second most important policy issue among the voting public is national security, an area where Trump has an 8 percentage point edge over Biden.
Meanwhile, the policy area for which Biden has the largest advantage over Trump is LGBTQ+ rights — an issue that only 27% of voters see as very important for the 2024 election. (Here is a look at the most partisan issues in American politics.)
Abortion
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- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 46%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 37%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 17%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +9 ppt. for Biden
Climate change
Source: William Campbell / Getty Images News via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 47%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 34%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 18%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +13 ppt. for Biden
Education
Source: PeopleImages / Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 45%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 40%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 15%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +5 ppt. for Biden
Energy
Source: Polina-Petrenko / iStock via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 43%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 43%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 15%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: Even split
Gun policy
Source: Joe Raedle / Getty Images News via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 42%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 44%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 14%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +2 ppt. for Trump
Health care
Source: armydre2008 / Flickr
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 46%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 40%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 13%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +6 ppt. for Biden
LGBTQ+ rights
Source: Photo Italia LLC / iStock Editorial via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 48%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 28%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 24%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +20 ppt. for Biden
Medicare and Social Security
Source: mphillips007 / iStock via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 46%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 40%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 14%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +6 ppt. for Biden
National security
Source: 2023 Getty Images / Getty Images News via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 39%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 47%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 13%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +8 ppt. for Trump
Protecting U.S. democracy
Source: John Moore / Getty Images News via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 43%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 43%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 13%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: Even split
Public safety and crime
Source: Scott Olson / Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 41%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 46%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 14%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +5 ppt. for Trump
Taxes
Source: teegardin / Flickr
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 40%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 46%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 14%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +6 ppt. for Trump
The economy
Source: Tim Boyle / Getty Images News via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 39%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 48%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 13%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +9 ppt. for Trump
U.S.-China relations
Source: Lintao Zhang / Getty Images News via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 37%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 47%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 15%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +10 ppt. for Trump
Voting rights
Source: Brandon Bell / Getty Images News via Getty Images
- Share of voters who trust Biden more on issue: 45%
- Share of voters who trust Trump more on issue: 41%
- Share of voters with no opinion: 14%
- Biden vs. Trump differential: +4 ppt. for Biden
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