Technology

Can Apple Save Itself?

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: March 7, 2024 6:35 am

Bloomberg ran a list of 10 challenges Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will have to overcome to return to a track of rapid revenue growth, innovation, and fewer conflicts with EU and U.S. regulators. While each may have some value, only one thing matters for Apple: Can the iPhone retake its status as the “must-have” smartphone worldwide, especially in the United States and China?

Apple’s battles with EU and U.S. regulators will play out in the next year or two. Apple may be facing billion-dollar fines. So far, the most serious of these issues is the EU fine of about $2 billion for Apple’s monopoly position in Europe’s music streaming business. It also faces antitrust actions in America, although the final form of those has not taken shape.

Some investors consider the death of the company’s car plans a negative. On the other hand, Apple was never likely to challenge Tesla and every major car company in the world. Apple may be the world’s most powerful brand, but it was always hard to see how a smartphone brand could be the foundation of a car brand. The company is wise to have exited a failing business plan as early as it did.

Apple is also late on artificial intelligence—or is it? So far, the AI offerings from Microsoft and Google may be helpful in personal productivity. Still, there is scant evidence that they have extraordinarily changed how people work and live.

According to research firm Counterpoint, iPhone sales dropped 24% in China in the first six weeks of the year. One thing is certain: Apple has a similar challenge to the iPhone in the United States. The iPhone is no longer a double-digit revenue growth business. Apple’s revenue fell in China in the most recent quarter, which indicates that the Counterpoint data could be correct. (Here are five reasons to avoid Apple products today.)

Apple’s iPhone problems may extend until the launch of the iPhone 16, which could be the test for holiday sales and its fortunes in 2025. Will it get a better camera and faster processor? Almost certainly. Will it need more than that to be a huge hit? Almost certainly. Perhaps that will be the world’s most advanced AI-driven personal assistant. Perhaps it will be a phone that changes in five minutes. Whatever it is, it had better be big.