Consumer Electronics

Analysts Talk Down GoPro Growth and Valuations After Ambarella

GoPro Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) and Ambarella Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) are both having a very hard Wednesday. The concerns are growing that the growth of days past likely will not be repeated, and we have estimates and targets being trimmed at two firms on Wall Street.

Ambarella issued stellar earnings on Tuesday after the close, but then the guidance and a comment of a lack of new products from customers has done more damage.

GoPro and its wearable cameras are suffering due to ties with Ambarella, based on no new product launches this year. Raymond James said that it was adjusting its estimates lower and to more realistic valuations to a new lower market multiple based on more modest growth expectations.

GoPro launched the Hero+ LCD and Hero4 Session products earlier this year. A lack of new products late in the year is now expected to keep the holiday-driven surge more tame.

Raymond James trimmed its target price to $50 from $70. Growth already was expected slow some in action cameras, while some growth would be made up by drones and the quadcopters. It was the lack of new camera products for this holiday season that will lead some deceleration in growth.

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Stifel noted that the new products were well received but were not exactly driving better-then-expected growth. The firm also worries that yearly comparisons will be difficult due to an anniversary of the Hero4 line. As a result, the estimates for the fourth quarter were trimmed, even though estimates for the third quarter were maintained. Stifel is simply taking a more conservative view due to potential deceleration of growth trends.

As a reminder, Ambarella was hit at the end of July by Citron Research. The short-selling research firm pointed out at the time that Ambarella’s investor enthusiasm had become detached from reality.

This seems early for this, but a shareholder rights law firm called Johnson & Weaver already has announced an investigation of GoPro. It is encouraging investors to contact the firm for additional information on whether GoPro issued misleading information to investors related to the initial and secondary offerings in 2014.

Also in Ambarella, Canaccord Genuity said that sports camera sales seasonality is surprising and puzzling, but broader business trends remain strong. Still, the firm lowered its target price to $105 from $122 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Ambarella shares were down over 12% at $78.25 in mid-afternoon trading on Wednesday. Its consensus price target is still just over $100, and it has a 52-week trading range of $33.35 to $129.19.

GoPro shares were down just under 8% at $40.20 Wednesday afternoon. Its consensus price target is still north of $75, and it has a 52-week range of $37.13 to $98.47.

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To compare valuations using current share prices versus the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates, we have the following on earnings per share multiples:

  • GoPro now trades at 22 times 2015 earnings and 19 times 2016 earnings.
  • Ambarella now trades at 26 times 2015 earnings and 21.5 times 2016 earnings.

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