With consumers on a budget and with the economists arguing whether deflation or inflation is closer, 24/7 Wall St. is keeping a watchful eye out for any price spikes in the things that affect our daily lives. It turns out that gasoline prices this summer may be higher than previously forecast.

The U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) has released its short-term energy outlook, with bad news for Joe Public. The moves might not sound like much on the surface, but this is on top of already higher prices. Then there is the notion that higher energy prices equate to higher inflation.

The EIA forecast now projects that regular gasoline retail prices will now average $3.61 per gallon during the April to September summer driving season this year. If so, this would be some three cents higher than it was for the same period in 2013 and would be four cents higher than projected in the short-term energy outlook offered up just a month ago.

EIA’s projected monthly national average regular gasoline retail price falls from $3.72 per gallon in May to $3.51 per gallon in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.48 per gallon in 2014 and $3.39 per gallon in 2015. This would compare to an average of $3.51 per gallon in 2013.

ALSO READ: The 10 Most Polluted Cities in America

The question that this brings up concerns inflation. How the numbers magically drop in 2015 is based on many factors that have not yet come to pass. The other issue is that this is all taking place with a very anemic global growth scenario. So what happens if demand starts ticking up again in the rest of the world, developed and emerging?

We do not want to cause any serious concern here, but the reality is that the consumer is still very strapped for cash and is very price sensitive. Now take a prior figure given by the EIA: average daily consumption of gasoline in America was about 365.65 million gallons in 2012. On a static basis, that comes to an additional $3.66 million per day that comes out of the economy for each penny increase in the cost of gasoline.

A four-cent increase in the cost of gasoline over the summer would easily cost more than $1 billion, which comes out of other spending over the summer months.

ALSO READ: States With the Most Drunk Driving

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.