Global smartphone sales will drop to their lowest level in a decade. Will the falling tide scuttle all companies in the business? Given Apple’s share of this market, investors ought to be concerned. (Customers are abandoning these 25 brands.)

Highly regarded research firm Counterpoint recently released a paper titled “2023 Global Smartphone Shipments to Hit Decade Low As Apple Inches Closer to Top Spot.” But will that top spot allow Apple iPhone sales to jump as it releases the iPhone 15?

The study shows global smartphone shipments will decline 6% from last year to 1.15 billion. Asia and North American activity are the culprits, as are “economic headwinds.” For these reasons, “consumers are hesitant to upgrade their devices, pushing replacement rates for the US and globally to record highs.” The iPhone 15 is the next upgrade in Apple’s annual cycle of iPhone releases.

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The iPhone 15 should make sales of the smartphone surge, as has been true every year for a decade. The iPhone has turned Apple into a behemoth with the most cash-rich balance sheet in the world and a market cap of about $3 trillion, which is also the largest.

iPhone sales struggled in Apple’s most recently reported quarter. Revenue from iPhone sales dropped to $39.7 billion from $40.7 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Apple’s overall revenue dropped from $83.0 billion to $81.8 billion. The reason the numbers were not worse was Apple’s surging Services revenue. This rose to $21.2 billion from $19.0 billion.

The worry about Apple’s upgrade cycle is whether a new iPhone is enough of an improvement over the current one to bring in buyers. Apple will know that in a month or so.