Next Week's Must See Earnings (APOL, LDK, DG, RAD, MOS, RIMM)

Earnings season is over, except for a few stragglers.  There are several big and active stocks to watch next week.  We have used Thomson Reuters consensus estimates and added in other data for previews in Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Dollar General (NYSE: DG), Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), and in Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM).

Monday morning is the controversial Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL).  It reports on Monday and estimates are $0.81 on $1.08 billion in revenues.   The big move is for the coming quarter where estimates are $1.45 EPS on $1.28 billion in revenues.  The big issue to watch outside of earnings is the charges and allowances that the company may disclose.  We already saw disappointing guidance in mid-February and an increased share buyback.  Shares fell almost 10% to $56.92 on the guidance, but have since come back above the $61.45 pre-warning price.  With shares around $61.00, the 52-week trading range is $52.79 to $81.20.  The guidance likely took out much of the thunder for this quarter, but Apollo can be volatile around its earnings reports.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is on deck next Tuesday morning, and this to many is one of the more controversial solar sector stocks.  It does not affect the sector as if it were First Solar.  Estimates are $0.12 EPS and $301.9 million in revenues.  Estimates for the quarter ahead are $0.07 EPS and $321 million in revenues.  Rising revenues and declining profits.. sound familiar in the sector?  That is lower margins.  With shares at $6.93, the 52-week range is $5.06 to $14.27.  It is getting harder and harder to find the bulls in this one.

Wednesday morning is Dollar General (NYSE: DG), and this appears to be the first full quarter report since its November-2009 re-IPO.  Estimates  are for $0.43 EPS on $3.19 billion in revenues.  With a price of roughly $25.00, its post IPO range is only $21.30 to $26.51.  The big problem here is that any strength is believed to be met by more insider selling from the private equity affiliates.  The near-$9 billion market cap makes this one a leader for all stocks in the sector.  Besides, it is always fun to ask the cashier, “How much does this cost?”

Thursday is a decent earnings day. Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) is due in the morning.  With a $1.68 price today, a $0.32 to $2.35 range over the last 52-weeks, and an earnings estimate for a loss of -$0.19, it is a guess what to say here.  Losses are expected this year and next, and this is one of the few companies which Wall Street will still endorse on a narrower loss if that comes.  The perpetual turnaround.

Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is on deck Thursday after the closing bell and we’ll get to see if it can echo the (finally) good news out of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) on its raised guidance.  Estimates on Mosaic are $0.63 EPS on $1.81 billion in revenues, but that consensus has grown over the last two weeks.  Despite being up over 60% from a 52-week low, the $58.85 price today compares to a 52-week high of $68.28.  If you blend 2010 and 2011 EPS targets (May year-end) from Thomson Reuters, Mosaic trades at just under 20-times a blended forward earnings.

Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is the biggest NASDAQ stock on deck with earnings next week.  Estimates are $1.28 EPS on $4.3 billion in revenues.  We will be paying close attention to the development of its Apps Store as it has been behind the Apple Apps craze.  This would come to 24% revenue growth and over 40% earnings growth.  The analyst upgrades Friday morning may have shed more light on upside expectations here, and we’d note that Research in Motion has beaten earnings expectations in at least the last four quarters.  This comes right around the same time as the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) highly awaited iPad launch.  RIM could rally about 20% more from here before it put in a new 52-week high.

These Thomson Reuters estimates are likely to change as we get closer to each earnings event next week.

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JON C. OGG